LETTER: My Social and behavioral Scientific prediction about who will win St. Mary’s South By-election

Dear Edtior,

 

My prediction for St. Mary’s South by-election will be determined by the pragmatic approach and application of social science analyses (I am so not endorsing any candidate but just a nerd in love with human behavior and law).

 

Let me begin by saying that the strategy of ABLP using a recent former UPP member as the candidate in this by-election was a brilliant move–if it was done with hopes for the previous ABLP candidate (Samantha Marshall) to have a chance of being a winning candidate again, in the next general election (if the ABLP current candidate loses).

 

My complimenting the move as brilliant is not at all any endorsement/support of the ABLP or dislike for UPP. I support any party that is best for the people, that is where my loyalty is. However, this article aims to focus strictly on the science of human behavior and political science to determine the conduct of all voting members in the St. Mary’s South Constituency, especially in Bolans Village.

 

The move performed by ABLP, that I considered to be brilliant, was determined to be so by me because of the certainty of it causing more chaos within UPP than I believe it would cause within ABLP.  There move will certainly be a higher likelihood to be chaotic internally for UPP and causes a lot more loss of votes for UPP candidate than any problems ABLP will face for picking and accepting a recent UPP supporter as the ABLP candidate. There will certainly be substantial fractures within the UPP.

 

Would these fractures be enough to carve away 199 or more votes from UPP candidate Mr. Simon or would this cause 199 or more legitimate voters who did not vote in the last election to vote on October 24th, 2023? I guess I will find out when I leave my 8-hour ADR to negotiate settlement of my client’s injuries, special day for Saint Mary’s South and my client.

 

I do believe I have the answer for the winner based on my analysis. The winner will be Mr…, let me first go through some things used in my consideration.

 

Most people do not consider the effect that ABLP’s action of taking a recent former UPP member and placing him in high position, as the current candidate for ABLP, ignoring those who have never ever switched or flipflopped their loyalty from ABLP but was not picked. This seems as if it will have an impact but not as substantial as the fractures within UPP caused by the same action.

 

Truly, voters should be loyal to progress, happiness and success, not a political candidate or party. So, my point is that it should be okay for any person to switch their support at any time based on who is providing the happiness, success and progress but in reality, there are consequences for doing so. Humans may feel betrayed, humans may feel that they cannot trust a person who they consider to be not loyal, humans may even feel like they cannot support a party that caused their party to lose a talented person, etcetera. There are so many kinds of feelings that makes prediction seems to be difficult.

 

For ABLP, I think the major problem is that supporters are not motivated to vote because of their actions in bringing a fresh UPP member to the front of the ABLP. I also do believe that ABLP voters are unlikely to switch who they are voting for, while UPP voters are more likely to switch who they are voting for in this specific situation.

 

For UPP, the result is likely to be UPP supporters switching to vote for someone they liked and respected. Family members of Mr. George would switch (even secretly do so) to vote for him, and some UPP supporters may not even vote at all because they may have liked and still like Mr. George and that is why they voted for Mr. Simon in the last election.

 

This is possible because I met a family from another country living in Bolans, who said they only voted for Mr. Simon because a particular person who belongs to UPP, who have helped them throughout the years, through tough times, was voting for UPP, so they will vote for Mr. Simon too. They said they did not know Mr. Simon. That conversation was so unique to me, scientifically, that I actually told they person the family said indirectly influenced them to vote UPP, and for Mr. Simon.

 

This person explained to me that was literally the only reason the entire house which included him, his wife, and others in that house voted in the past general election for Mr. Simon and UPP.

 

So, folks sometimes vote for candidates not because of the candidates but who the candidates have as supporters. I got this information only because I introduced myself to them because of a gorgeous lady they had visiting them, and I was interested in. They wanted to know who my family member is, and I happen to have a particular uncle on my father’s side who was that particular man (hint hint ha ha ha).

 

I must inform you that voters in Antigua, not sure about Barbuda, and are more loyal to candidates and parties, no matter what. You could have given that voter all you have, and sacrifice the world for that voter, that voter is still not likely to change who they are voting for and would curse you out, even though you have given that voter your heart or kidney or even 2 millions dollars ($2,000,000.00) to build any size and shape house they like. My point is, will the brilliant ABLP move in selecting Mr. Dwayne George recently of the UPP to be ABLP candidate have substantial impact to cause Mr. Simon to lose his margin? I will answer this precisely soon but let talk more about the other issues.

 

The current winning/governing party is ABLP. This put Mr. George in a good position because his team is in charge and is able to influence directly and indirectly the system (not saying this in a cheating or dishonest manner but it could be, or it could be in terms of stretching the law but not breaking it to the ABLP advantage). Yes, the leading party has an upper hand in that aspect, no matter which party is in charge, this statement applies. They are in control; it applies to any party that would have won the past general election, which happens, in this case, to be ABLP.

 

I do not know how big Mr. George voting family is in Bolans but let me use my family size in Bolans to give me an idea. I am assuming in Bolans Village that he has about 32 close voting family members (I am guessing so please excuse this kind of guessing). I am assuming he may some family members further south too, that is not included in the number above.

 

I remember meeting one of Mr. George family member when I was visiting Antigua during the general election who was literally furious about people voting for ABLP so I am not sure that specific family member or members will switch, but I would predict they will. There is nothing at all wrong with supporting your family member and considering their opinion, I wish I had that and not just looked at like a bank.

 

I also believe the fact that Mr. George is actually a local villager in St. Mary’s South constituency, Bolans resident to be exact, this will have substantial positive impact on the votes, beneficial to him. Mr. George in this situation would be better positioned than his predecessor Ms. Samantha Marshall because of this.

 

Are there any candidates with close family members that will cause chaos or who are considered to be troublemakers or who are highly disliked and make the candidate hated or not supported solely because of who their close family member (s) is/are? I mentioned this for a specific reason.

 

Also, the kind of work and achievements the candidate achieved prior to their candidacy you may think is a factor but most likely it is not. One candidate I heard was a guidance counsellor and the other an economics professor. I would say most developed countries would put heavy weight on the candidate who is an economics professor at a college, but this is Bolans, St. Mary’s South and Antigua, these kinds of things do not have much value in deciding whether to listen to someone or vote. Trust me on this one, I know this personally.

 

I know of persons who have left Antigua for college, made it through some of the most difficult times, most of the times alone, work hard and privately, ended up owning their own businesses, turning eviction ($0) into millions, morally and legally, take perfect care of family members in Antigua and those family members in Antigua would still make it clear that such a person cannot influence them or be useful in assisting them in making decisions, not matter how many degrees and advance degree, doctorate degree, this person possesses. No matter how successful this person is. This person is only useful when bills are due, you get a call, this is due, and the person calls and pays for an entire year again.

 

But this is normal locally, things are not decided based on intelligence, merit and evidence. So, the candidates’ education and achievement will have little to no impact on voters’ choice. I am not here saying a guidance counselor is less than an economic college professor, I am saying what value society usually gives both, when comparing them. However, in Antigua, such achievements by both candidates are of little consequence.

 

The other issue is the leaders of the party. At this time, there is a trend to not support the Prime Minister, Gaston Browne of the ABLP, and at UPP, there is said to be no duly appointed leader for UPP. Which of these are more damaging to the candidate?

 

Anyway, as everyone can see, the analysis focuses more on Mr. George. It is because he is the new and the unknown in terms of what result could possibly be gotten from him in an election because we already know Mr. Simon’s election result potential from the results of the last election. So, that is his potential and there is not much I think he can do other than securing the votes he got before in the last election and try to encourage those who did not vote to vote, especially those who would vote for him. This is the only thing Mr. Simon can do.

 

I do believe Mr. Simon has lost some of those votes obviously but has the votes Mr. George impacted is enough to cause Mr. Simon to lose this by-election?

 

The answer I believe from the limited information I have is no. Mr. Simon will be the winner of this By-election, as most things of merit does not impact Antiguans in politics. Things like education, success prior to politics, morals, principles, wealth, achievements, eagerness to help others, proof that you will help others and do the right things practically have no impact on voters in Antigua and more specifically base on my knowledge, Bolans Villagers.

 

So, the result will most likely stay the same, which means Mr. Simon will stay the winner, since he won by 199 votes, correct the number if I am wrong.

 

my prediction is definitely not any endorsement or support or not supporting any of the candidates, I simply wanted to use social science, and evidence as a behavioral expert to predict the result of this By-election.

 

I do believe that if the last election was lost with smaller numbers and the population was bigger in St. Mary’s South, the result could have easily been changed. I do think Mr. George will do well but it will not be enough to convince supporters of UPP to change their die-hard support for UPP, especially, not this soon.

 

My prediction gives Mr. Simon the win and Ms. Samantha Marshall is also a winner because the UPP fracture will be Longterm and substantial enough that if they want her to be the candidate in the next general election and have a better chance of winner, this situation has certainly given her that.

 

Based on how early I have given this prediction, could also have a substantial impact on the election, causing the opposite of my result to occur, but would have been correct had I published these 3 or 4 days before instead of this early.

 

But I feel confident about my analysis and the results. My conclusion is that my data shows Mr. Simon will win, but my gut is telling me Mr. George has a better chance than Ms. Marshall would have.

 

My analysis also concluded that Antigua does not at all focuses on success, happiness, achievement, and how well-positioned a person is to advance the country and the people. Decisions are made on family tradition on voting.

 

There is no loyalty to happiness, success and progress. You cannot teach most Antiguans anything new and better for them.

 

EF

 

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