May 19, 2 pm EDT:
NHC is monitoring a system over the west-central Atlantic Ocean that has a 40% (medium) chance of becoming a short-lived subtropical cyclone to the northeast of Bermuda this weekend.
The system does not pose a threat to Antigua and Barbuda.
NOAA will release its initial outlook for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season tomorrow, Thursday, May 20.
Early indications call for an above-average season.
Based on climate data from 1991 to 2020 as the new 30-year period of record, the updated averages for the Atlantic hurricane season have increased with 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. The average for major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) remains unchanged at 3.
The previous Atlantic storm averages, based on the period from 1981 to 2010, were 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Researchers at Colorado State University released their initial forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season in April, calling for 17 names systems, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
Reasons for the forecast include the unlikelihood that El Niño conditions will occur during this year’s hurricane season and above-average sea surface temps in the tropical Atlantic.
El Niño typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity through increases in vertical wind shear.
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I am glad someone is keeping their eyes 👀 on the Atlantic Tropical 🏝 Weather because it seem like COVID-19 have most of us minds occupied.
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