Disturbance 1: 70% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 5 Days
As of 2:00 pm EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 …
Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated that a
small area of low pressure has developed along a tropical wave about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
However, the low
does not quite have a closed circulation, and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend while moving generally westward at about 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
This system is expected to reach portions of the
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
A small area of low pressure located 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is likely to become a tropical depression by the weekend, and is expected to reach the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday.
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