CADRES releases limited details of polling conducted during the course of 2022 showing ABLP victory

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Against the background of much speculation in the public domain regarding recent polling in Antigua and Barbuda, CADRES has secured permission from our client to release limited details of polling conducted by us during the course of 2022.

Two rounds of polling were conducted by CADRES in constituencies which were selected to render a reliable appreciation of the national political mood at this time.

It should be noted that constituencies where the ABLP was strongest in the 2018 election were not polled on either occasion for obvious reasons.

The first round of polling was conducted during April/May of 2022 and our assessment was that the ABLP would have prevailed if an election were called at the time of polling.

Notwithstanding, Antiguans were very anxious about the water situation and were equally concerned about the ability of the country to recover from the impact of COVID, especially in the economic and educational realms.

Leadership preferences were considered in each constituency; however, the options were restricted to the leaders of the three active political parties (ABLP, UPP and DNA) and PM Browne was preferred to the UPP’s leader, Harold Lovell and the DNA’s leader Joanne Massiah, in a majority of cases.

The second round of polling was conducted during October and restricted to some of the same constituencies, along with two that were not polled in April/May.

On this more recent occasion, the ABLP was either leading or competitive in all constituencies polled, suggesting that it would prevail as a government if an election were called at that the time.

Notwithstanding, Antiguans remain concerned about several issues, not least of which is the availability and cost of Water and Electricity, along with Employment and several infrastructural issues, including roads.

The issue of water was fully explored and while some Antiguans agreed that the situation had improved, several were still of the opinion that it was unsatisfactory.

On this occasion, the leadership preference scenario was also tested and persons in all but one constituency preferred PM Browne.

In that one, the majority was unsure or preferred not to say which leader they preferred.

There has been keen interest in the St Peter’s constituency where former ABLP Minister Asot Michael is contesting as an independent, therefore this riding was specially included in the constituency analysis.

CADRES projected that if an election were called at the time of polling, the ABLP’s Turner would have emerged with the single largest block of support, while the UPP’s Harriette was likely to gain the second most support and independent Asot Michael, the least support from prospective voters.

CADRES considered comparative cases across the region where independent candidates contested and noted that an independent would need to gain the support of no less than 20% of voters to be viable and Michael did not attain that threshold.

The other significant finding relates to the DNA, which did not appear viable in any of the constituencies surveyed, which was also the case in the April/May surveys when the DNA did not have its slate of candidates in place.

CADRES is therefore of the opinion that the coming election will be a contest between the two traditional parties, with the ABLP leading in a majority of constituencies at this time.

CADRES, 29/10/2022 07:30

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22 COMMENTS

  1. Ok CADRES, if you say so, however can you release the polling data and the analysis results for each constituency, the critical thinkers amongst the electorate would be most grateful.

    One of the things that made me sceptical about this unverified CADRES poll was when I read:

    “…The issue of the water was fully explored and while some Antiguans agreed that the situation had improved …”

    I’m no pollster, but when you speak to your friends, family and neighbours; not a one talk about any improvement, unless the CADRES poll is talking about the money making water truck delivery drivers … MUST BE?

    I have tried to find the link to this poll and cannot find anything even close – it’s easier to find out about the lies on Covid-19 than verifying this utter malarkey and nonsense.

    • … and by the way, if this so-called poll is correct, then Gaston Browne will call the General Election shortly, and if he doesn’t then the CADRES poll is pure fabrication.

      SIMPLE REALLY …

      • You guys are something else. First you guys deny that there was a pole. Then you guys want to see the pole. Not that you got a peep of the pole, you want to see the entire pole. Guess what? You ever play poker with someone, and the person shows you all the cards in hand. I guess that only happens when you play with a little child. Cause the child doesn’t understand that by showing his/her hand you will win the game.

        • FROM THE SIDELINE you are absolutely correct it was a POLE that was done and not POLL. To begin with the information that was reported lacks credibility. Not even the constituencies that were polled were indicated and those where the ALP was ahead and those where they are competitive. A recent poll by reputable pollster Don Anderson out of Jamaica indicated otherwise. The Anderson poll shows that the UPP is winning in 7 constituencies and competitive in several others. If the ALP has so much confidence in the CADRES poll then it should be calling the election as soon as possible.

          • Well Charles, have fun with the spelling mistake. It happens when using auto fill on your iPhone and before you know it you press enter and post. This website doesn’t allow one to go back and edit your posts. But I guess you didn’t had fun when Franz could spell the word “Grateful”, and Paul had to bring it to his attention. And last one was Serpent who couldn’t pronounce the word “Cohorts”. He said “Cohurts”. And we have many more of these illiterate UPP candidates who present themselves as an alternative to the government. But you haven’t come back to the essence of my comment. You have a poll done by some one called Anderson yet no detail whatsoever is presented. I remember the last election you guys had a poll done by Winter who claimed the UPP would have won. Well, you won only one. And that by just ten votes. The PM wants to have all seventeen in the bag, and we are very close in doing so. So be prepared for a total massacre this time around. I was going to feel sorry for you guys, but the more I think of it, I think you guys deserve what is coming to you.

        • Nice try at obfuscation @ From The Sideline: however, I note that you mentioned the word “Pole” 3 times (one mistake is fine, but 3 times boss!) in your response (one mistake is fine, but 3 times boss!) – WHAT DAMN POLE YOU TALKING ‘BOUT? A DANCING POLE???

          You ABLP general supporters are something else, and an absolute wonder to behold. No wonder Gaston loves to play you all like mindless marionettes. Tarl!!!

          • Have fun Brixtonian. Yes, the only dancing pole is in the bus that Daniel took as his own, given to us by the People’s Republic of South Korea. You may have been on the bus as well. And it’s not about three mistakes, it’s about the phone being consistent in auto filling the word each time I type it. But have your laugh. Hope you laugh at the stupidity of your candidates as well. They are making bigger English spelling grammatical and pronunciation errors.

      • The PM has you guys right where he wants you all. And now you guys are begging him to call the election. But the PM will call it when you guys least expect it. And then you will get 17-0 in you all tail. Whoops whaps.

  2. This is pathetic!

    Not a single actual number quoted on voter swing, constituency polling or issue polling.

    This report tells us absolutely nothing.

    ABLP is losing, so they commanded their paid consultant to put out some favorable PR. That is all there is to this.

    • Who did they poll? Who did you sample to reach your conclusions? What was the size of your sample? What were the percent margins?

      Questions that need answering. I have more but I’ll start with those.

  3. This poll isn’t worth a damn. You want credibility, make the data public for all to see. Just don’t come with all kinds of fictitious and questionable assertions. Who are these people? How come I never heard about them before? Are they like ECLAC, simply make deductions based on given information instead of doing their own research? On the back of this, dissolve ParLIARment, name the date and let’s get on with it.

  4. @ CHARLES TABOR and BRIXTONIAN

    Why don’t you talk about UPP fake POLLS . Hope you Guys will be around after the election. Bury your DAMN head in the sand . ABLP 17 SEATS…UPP 00 SEAT.

  5. @ RUPERT MANN

    you made a mistake, ABLP winning 18 SEATS, because you casting the ‘X’ for everyone with your finger. The finger which you can stick up GB’s azzzzzzzzzz

  6. Wow 😳😲 wow Wow Rupert Mann sorry Prime Minister GB will not be taking part in our elections just waite until Mr Leroy King gave his evidence on Oath you all will be shock to hear what comes out my friend Errol how you How many of them King has given up Malwym talk man was it a bribe come clean no stones left unturned Asot stop the laughing

  7. I do believed there are many in Gaston Browne’s Labor Party. That like to slide and sit on “POLES” to include Sidelines and the Chief Pollster himself.

  8. I only pay serious attention to independent polls. So I would prefer that if polling is necessary it should be commissioned by independent body, even if it’s the electoral commission. The result released in a open and transparent manner. Anything else can be manipulated, especially when the pollsters are working and paid for by the political party. Even the way that the questions are asked or formulated can influence the outcome.
    In the case where a political party feel it is necessary for them to do their own polling, that should be use for their internal decision making and campaigning.

  9. GB if you are in such can excellent position then why the hell you don’t call the damn elections? Arwe ready fu vote out your buffoon of a government. We voting Harold Lovell and the Redeem Team. We waiting like a loaded gun fu you wicked, corrupt self!

  10. Who cares what this pink sheep has to say. As long as labour is paying him, he will tell them what they want to hear. Was this supposedly poll done earlier in the year. We are almost in November.

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