A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands now has a medium chance of development, and a tropical depression could form over the central or western Caribbean Sea late this week or this weekend.
East of the Windward Islands:
Updated: Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands.
Although the wave is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.
Conditions appear to become more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday.
Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.