A tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two while approaching the Leeward Islands. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or tonight for portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Tropical disturbance Al95 could become a tropical cyclone and affect the area…
A tropical cyclone alert is in effect for the leeward islands and the British Virgin Islands. A tropical cyclone alert means that, in this case, a tropical disturbance with over a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone is in our monitored area. Watches and warnings are not required at this time but may be required in the next 48 hours.
Given the forecast uncertainties regarding al95 forecast track, size and intensity, it is not yet possible to say with high confidence what will become of this system at this time. Notwithstanding, at the reasonable worst-case, tropical disturbance al95 poses a minor threat with the potential to cause limited impacts from storm-force winds, high seas and minor flooding, resulting in some disruptions to daily life and minor damage to infrastructure. To be safe, be prepared to implement your hurricane season disaster plans.
At 8 am ect or 1200 utc, tropical disturbance al95 was located about 850 miles east of the leeward islands. Al95 continues to move towards the west or west-northwest at 20 mph.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Some gradual development is forecast and the system now has a 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by the weekend.
On its forecast track, the system will likely affect the leeward islands late Saturday into Sunday. However, there is still some time for it to shift and spare the islands.
Residents should monitor tropical disturbance al95 closely and have their hurricane season plans prepared to safeguard life, property and livelihood, in the event that watches or warnings are issued within the next 48 hours.
The next advisory will be at 2 pm ect or sooner if required.
Jaleel Jacobs/Lorne Salmon