Forecaster Dale Destin says the watch issued for Tropical Depression 13 will likely be dropped for most of the Leeward Islands this morning.
The system remains a depression as it continues to approach the Nothern Leeward Islands.
However, according to Destin there was some good news overnight since there was still no increase in wind speeds, as it gets closer. If the trend continues, we may be able to drop the watches, as they may no longer be justified, he said.
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 305 MI…490 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island,
Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, as well as
for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor
the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches
or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later
today. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should
also monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 58.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph
(33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near
or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or north
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north
of Hispaniola Saturday night.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday. Locally heavy
rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an
increased potential for mudslides. Some rivers may overflow their
1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Dominican Republic,
Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area later today through Saturday night.
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.