A Tropical Cyclone Alert (TCA) remains in effect for Antigua, the rest of the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands.
TCA means that there is a Tropical Cyclone (TD_11) in our monitored area but a watch or warning is not required at this time.
Note the threat level of elevated, relative to where it falls on the scale. Elevated is a low threat level but this could change upwards, if the cyclone does not make the forecast turn to the west-northwest by the end of today.
At 5 am this morning, TD_11 was looking quite disheveled; notwithstanding, it is forecast to become TS Josehine in 24 hours.
TS Josephine is forecast to develop from TD_11 and pass an uncomfortable but relatively safe distance north of our islands around Saturday. However, there is still the potential for it to pass near or over us and bring tropical storm conditions.
TD_11 is battling relatively dry and or dusty air (yellows, oranges and reds on the Saharan Air Layer chart), which is retarding its intensification; otherwise conditions are favourable for development.