by Arvel Grant
January 18th 2023 Antigua-Barbuda’s ABLP, fell from 23,269 ( and 15 of 17 seats) to 20,052 (and 9 seats) losing more than 3,000 popular votes.
The UPP rose from14,440 (with 1 seat) to 19,267 (with 6 seats) gaining more than 4,000 popular votes.
Seat-count in Antigua-Barbuda’s Lower House? ABLP 9, Opposition (including UPP’s 6) 8 – 41,000+ voted from a list of 60,900+
Whatsapp Arvel Grant at: 1268 7700922
Following the elections, Labor candidates (excepting Steadroy Benjamin, Deputy PM and Darrel Mathew, Minister of Education) lost support in triple figures. Benjamin losing 10 and Mathew 78.
The Antigua and Barbuda Labor party, is not in the habit of losing popular support, even when it looses general elections.
Now that ZDK Radio is no longer Labor’s “cathedral” of motivation and has become (instead) a kind of ecumenical temple, where all political bishops can approach the altar of enthronement and to make popular supplications; Labor’s political evangelists may say, some laborites (like sheep) have gone astray; and have turned (one and all) to their own ways?
Notwithstanding big losses (in popular support) the Gaston Browne led ABLP, won a 9 to 8 majority. This makes Browne the first political leader (since independence) to win a hattrick
Of general elections. The win gives Labor 13 victories, out of the 16 general elections, held in Antigua-Barbuda since 1951.
To avoid a political calamity, the ABLP must navigate: Several unsettled industrial disputes; Seeming impolite relations between the party and Antigua Trades and Labor Union; Wider discontentment with in the party; Continuing increase in prices, the mysterious arrival of close to a thousand West Africans, in Antigua-Barbuda; Pending demands of a more democratic and balanced House of Representatives and the anticipated resurrection of the Parliamentary Accounts Committee.
But it is Harold Lovel and the UPP which stole the show on the day. The UPP not only moved its share of popular support from 14,440 in 2018 to 19,267, the party increased its seat count in the House from 1 to 6; giving the opposition 8 to the government’s 9. The majority of UPP candidates increased their popular support by triple digits, including Political Leader Harold Lovel, who narrowly missed de-throning Minister of Information Melford Nicholas by 6 votes.
The opposition’s 8-seat count, is made even more tantalizing, by the dramatic narrowing of the gaps, between the ABLP and the UPP in the following 6 (six) constituencies.
1). Mr. Harold Lovel (City East) losing to Melford Nicholas by 6 – 791 to 785. In 2018 Hon. Nicholas defeated Harold Lovel by 153 votes.
2). Senator Joseph (St. Mary North) -Losing to Sir Molwyn by 49 – 1,664 to 1,615. In 2018 Sir Molwyn defeated Senator Joseph by 662 votes.
3). Senator Browne ( St Philip North) losing to Sir Robin by 93 – 708to 615. In 2018 Sir Robin defeated his UPP opponent by 529 votes.
4). Dr Cleon Athil (St Paul) losing to E. P. Chet Green by 143 – 1,244 to 1,101. In 2018 Hon Green defeated his UPP opponent by 479 votes.
5). Mrs. Quin-Williams (Rural North) losing to Charles Fernandez by 205- 1,563 to 1,358. In 2018 Hon Charles Fernandez defeated his UPP opponent by 651 votes.
6). Mr. Sean Bird (Rural East) losing to Maria Bird-Browne by 310 – 1,770 to 1,460. In 2018 Hon Maria Bird-Browne defeated her UPP opponent by 1,200 votes.
To win the next general elections, the UPP must: Remain united? Maintain the momentous swing away from the ABLP; Retain its 6 seats and win at least 3 of the above 6.
But something tells me, that my friends in the UPP, have returned to their old ways, of misreading the mood of popular expectations, on the night of general elections.
Why else would the party promptly release the pressure on the ABLP and Mr. Nicholas, by facilitating the resignation of its political leader (Harold Lovel)? And failed to appoint its 4 most successful, losing candidates to the senate. Certainly, the dramatic increase in the UPP’s fortunes under Lovel’s political leadership, confirmed that the gentleman warrior developed high levels of immunity against ABLP attacks over the years; inoculating him against more of the same?
Furthermore, it is unlikely that a new UPP candidate will have the: Tactical experience, name and voice recognition (nation-wide and at constituency level) to push Mr. Nicholas as hard as did Mr. Lovel, potentially, yielding the seat back to an easy win by the incumbent.
And why has the UPP leaders, failed to recognize that among the party’s best chances of winning the next general elections, is to enhance the profile of 4 losing candidates who came closest to defeating their ABLP opponents, by appointing them to the Senate?
Political logic would suggest that 2 of: Cleon Athil, Pearl Quin-Williams and Sean Bird, should have joined Senators Joseph and Browne in the Upper House.
Not only would such appointments enhance their public profile in governance, boosting the UPP’s chances at the next general elections, but they would, undoubtably, enhance the quality of opposition debate in the upper house. Time will tell, but the UPP may come to regret those missed opportunities.
Walk good… and let us see what improvements (if any) a revived political opposition brings to the House of Representatives.
(For more analytical pieces, visit: arvelgrant.com or [email protected] for publication without content modification(s) – All rights reserved
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Good write up.
Steadroy Cutie Benjamin in 2018 elections got 895 votes and in 2023 elections got 904 votes. That constitutes an increase in votes by 9 and not loss 10 votes as was wrongfully said in the article
But also remember pm brown will try his best to correct his wrongs unless he feels he has had enough of being pm of the twin island state.even if at this point he would want to pass the Barton he would try to leave in good standings.
Yes, Mr Grant, the UPP is back to its old ways. It is now the party of Giselle who was anxious to get her sister to write a farewell speech for Lovell, and to return her best buddies Jonathan Joseph and the useless general secretary Shaun Nicolas to the Senate. That was Giselle totally in charge and doing what she feels like.
For Giselle, it is not about getting ready to win with anybody but her chosen few. Word is on the road that she has already selected the candidates to show the door.
Mr Grant, the departure of Harold Lovell is just dunceness. Again he jumped the gun and let his emotions get control of him. The best thing for the UPP now is for him to retract his resignation and stay there until the convention. He has to do the right thing for the party and not for himself because he feels humiliated. Maybe we forget that he himself told everybody that he is a season politician. He needs to show it now.
The big surprise was that the party did not protest the losses in his constituency and St Mary’s. Again word on the street is that the lawyers wanted to do that but the Chairman Giselle and general secretary Nicolas had no appetite for that. It could be because both got what they wanted, and that is one gets to dominate the party through the feckless Pringle, and the other got her extra year to full pension.
UPP got a chance but is messing it up. And to the righteous members and supporters who and talking about God doesn’t do his work and spoil and seem to be happy in opposition, well he spoiled this one because he showed the party the way and they fell asleep at the wheel.
Giselle is a just come to UPP as Joan Massiah called such like her. She was a Labourite and then OND. And if the regular UPP people want to let her take over the party without a fight, then more power to her.
But it is foolishness that they allowed Lovell to walk away jus lakka dat. But maybe that is what the boss lady wanted. She did not show that she tried to stop him. She named him ‘the best PM Antigua never had’, and that was just hours after the election was over.
Read what you want from that.
@ UPP has a new boss lady
NOBODY IN UPP WANT ADVICE FROM EITHER YOU OR ARVEL GRANT.
This words sound much like the writing of Joanne (the alcoholic and kleptomaniac). IT IS TOO LATE NOW JOANNE try and come back. NO BADDY WANT U
@ UPP has a new boss lady
GISELLE PUSH STICK UP IN YA AZZ? SHE CAUSED YOU THE GOVERNMENT AND ABLP AND GASTON TO PAY HER NEARLY $4,000,000 FOR A FRIVOLOUS LAW SUIT?
Let me CONGRATULATE the U.P.P. on what I have seen since the last general elections.
Everyone is entitled to his or her own opinion so if the above is Mr. Grant’s opinion so be it.
Taking into consideration that the U.P.P. only had four (4) appointments to the Senate, it is my opinion that they did well.
I will not say certain things publicly at this time because I am not in the habit of helping the A.L.P.
What I will say to Mr. Grant is that ‘God could have created everything in a second and he took six (6) days’.
Are you hypocrites were banging Harold Lovell when he was opposition leader now he resigned it is another story. What you tired banging Pringle already? Don’t worry, Harold na gone far.
REMAIN???? you mean TRY to become “united”
Look dey now, how the ABLP acolytes are coming out in droves and voicing their opinions about the wrongdoings of the UPP.
And yet, on the last couple of editorial letters regarding the Africans and the current airline fiasco that can harm our homeland security, with the
onerous collaboration between Gaston Browne and Marvellous Mike … there was complete and utter silence?!
At least they are consistently ignorant, but yet loyal to Gaston (or as Asot Michael would say “Gassstorn”😁) Browne.
Stay under your rocks, unless any of you are big enough to come out criticise our Prime Minister for putting Antigua & Barbuda at serious security risk.
SIMPLE REALLY …
David and Alex please fix up your suits they’re too baggy, it’s not like yall have anything under there anyways.
… I rest my case (again!!!) Your honour 🥱
The UPP strategies and plans are not a matter for Laborites to discuss. There are capable, strategically thinking minds aplenty within UPP to deal with all issues. They should concern themselves with the spot of bother that this corrupt, deceitful, incompetent government is in. They think there are all illiterate, dunce, illogical people in this twin island state who swallow every lie spurted by Melford Nicholas. The ECCA document is there to show that they deliberately disregarded problems involving Antigua Airways. Before the dust settles, we might see several of their ‘gods’ hauled off in orange jumpsuits.
capable minds like who? EMPTYHEAD PRINGLE?
All the “lawyers” that couldn’t give proper advice to Shugy about resigning properly?
By your stupidity you shall be known.
Changing who you identify yourself as does not make a difference.
From the same people that said ABLP would get 17 – none. It took Arvel Grant 3 weeks to come up with this narrative? So the issues had no impact? UPP’s narrative had no impact? No mention about the huge sums of money that ABLP spent, the billboard monstrosity, mega concerts, treating and the impact that that had on voters. Would love to see his full analysis about the ABLP and Asot Michael fall out.
UPP will take no lecture from ALP. What ALP needs to be mindful of is that UPP has presented themselves as a formidable force to be reckoned.
As mentioned previously, ALP has compromise the safety and security of Antigua and Barbuda the United States and the entire Caribbean basin. They have allowed at least 3 planes of Africans into the country without carrying out proper checks, they have lied to the nations repeatedly about the fiasco and they recent arguments is to offer the Africans residency status with the right to work because the Africans may have skills that we don’t have or our CARICOM citizens! It’s hilarious nonsense.
GB has consistently brought Antigua into disrepute on a monumental level and members of his cabinet remained silent and watched our country slump into decay.
Our educational system is not functioning to the required standards necessary for 21st Century employment market, our health services is on the brink of collapse, pensioners are having to strike to get their pensions!
When will those labourites stand up against Browne and put our country first?
If, the UPP realizes this, “Just_One_Vote!”, that this is what they need in the Parliament , to bring a Vote of No Confidence against Gaston Browne and his ABLP regime to the Parliament floor and get the ball rolling to remove crooks and criminals in Parliament from continuing to live above the law, then they’re just as guilty, in allowing poor people to be rape with a telephone pole for a penis and sand for lubricant.
Gaston has being given a “vote of No Confidence” by a silent majority in the ABLP’s Hierarchy(Lenox Weston let the cat out of the bag with his comment regarding Social Media), the ABLP has being a “VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE” by the majority, of the Indigenous of Antiguans, Barbudans & REDONDANS, therefore, why should the UPP wait until, the next #Silly_Season/ELECTION to bring Good Governance to the Nation, unless, they the UPP was pretending and could care less, about, the best interests of the less fortunate(yes, #Sungoo/Lungoo are partners in crime, but they are fictional characters in a cartoon world, we the People live in a LIVE HUEman World of suffering).
Harold Lovell is really showing his #Stoic_Nature. He never really cared about the “Man_Pan_De_Karner” begging sugar, borrowing water, stealing bread, just to eat a meal to elevate his hunger.
There are many Citizens who’re still surviving daily on BREAD and SUGAR/FUZEE WATER.
Ras Smood aka Jumbee_Picknee
De ‘Ole Dutty Peg_Foot Bastard
Vere Cornwall Edwards.
…alleviate his hunger!
Come on Laborites! All your brilliant minds in ALP got duped (we know they lie) by the most corrupt country in the world. And these are the idiots who sit in our parliament, clueless, conggers posing as government. As empty as you think Pringle’s head is, no one can be as dumb as Gaston Browne and you minions. Hey, you brought and paid for an election, spending millions, yet damn near lost. UPP is in a prime position. The Laborites are turning on each other. You know what they say; there is no honor among thieves.
What momentum does the UPP have? They didn’t win. Labourites didn’t go out to vote. Once Gaston Rally’s them back into the fold, The UPP will go back into relative obscurity.
What can the likes of Pringle, Serpent, and Shuggy bring to the people of Antigua? They can’t effect meaningful change. Five years is a long long time let’s wait and see.
@Coming Down, Labourites didn’t vote? Really? Why did they not vote? Is it because the scales are falling from their cultists eyes? When you go go from 1 seat to 6 in parliament, what do you call that? Come on! You were bragging of 17 to 0, you are hanging on by a thread. The popular vote says otherwise. Five year to wait? Keep dreaming. We know that Gaston Browne, Molyn Joseph, Daryl Matthew, Michael Browne, Mel fraud Nicholas, all of them,brought nothing to Antigua but corruption, poverty, crime, scandals,you name it. We can not support this mockery called ALP.
Nasty leadership battle within the UPP brewing like fever grass tea
The cracks already showing with Pringle stumbling and fumbling over reading the VERY SAME OATH he took before. Pringle CAN’T READ nor SPEAK PROPERLY! Grammar, readhing comprehension and reasoning skills desperately needed.
Brewing as we speak is Bowen, Serpent et al plotting to remove Pringle as the “leader”
One already declared “NO LIKKLE BWOY A RULE ME”
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