Revised Prediction: Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected for 2023

As we progress through the final week of the first month of the Atlantic hurricane season, 268Weather has released its updated forecast for the 2023 season.

The forecast continues to call for this year’s hurricane season to be above normal with the potential for hyperactivity.

The main factor contributing to this projection is the expectation of warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic Ocean.

The forecast covers the full season from June to November and is based on data available through June 23, 2023.

Forecast Details

The forecast predicts:

• 18 named storms or a range of 14 to 24
• 8 hurricanes or a range of 6 to 12
• 5 major hurricanes or a range of 3 to 7
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 155 or a range of 90 to 243

The ACE is a measure of the total energy generated by all tropical named cyclones during the season, the universal measure of the overall activity of a season.

The probabilities associated with the forecast include a 68% chance of an above-normal season (ACE greater than 152), a 24% chance of a near-normal season (ACE 75 to 152), and an 8% chance of a below-normal season (ACE less than 75).

While the forecast indicates a 68% probability of an above-normal season, there is also a possibility of the season being well above normal or even super hyperactive.

There is a 34% chance that the ACE could exceed 223, placing it in the top 10 percentile of the 1991-2020 base period.

Additionally, there are probabilities of having more than 19 named storms (45%), more than 11 hurricanes (32%), and more than 6 major hurricanes (39%).

A typical season, based on the new standard climate period 1991-2020, has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) and an ACE of 123.

Looking at other forecasts for the season, most organizations are going for a near-normal season with three outliers, one of which is 268Weather.

However, we are in good company with the very reputable ECMWF forecasting similarly.

Factors Influencing the Forecast

The main reason for the above-normal forecast is the prediction of warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic Ocean.

Despite the forecast for El Niño, which typically suppresses hurricane activity, the warmer SSTs in the Atlantic are expected to counterbalance the suppressing effect of El Niño and result in an above-normal season.

The presence of warm SSTs generally favours an active hurricane season, while cool SSTs tend to suppress activity.

However, despite the forecast, there are still uncertainties surrounding the strength and timing of El Niño, as well as conflicting conditions between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

The Pacific conditions may favour a below-normal season, creating a challenge in accurately predicting the overall outcome.

Additionally, the “spring barrier” adds to the uncertainty, as it is difficult for models to skilfully forecast El Niño/La Niña events during this time of the year.

Conclusion

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to be above normal, with the potential for hyperactivity.

The forecast suggests a higher number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes compared to the seasonal averages.

The warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic are expected to outweigh the suppressing effects of El Niño.

However, uncertainties remain, and it is crucial to stay informed and prepared throughout the hurricane season. Click here for the full forecast.

The next update will be on July 18.