According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, as of 5:00 PM (AST) on October 1st, 2023, the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near 16.4 N 59.0 W.
On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near of just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night.
Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), primarily east of the center.
Rainfall: Antigua and Barbuda 4 to 6 inches, rest of Leeward Islands 2 to 4 inches through Tuesday October 3rd, 2023. The rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.
Wind: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by Monday morning.
Surf: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the eastern coasts of the Northern Leeward Islands.
The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Caribbean Institute For Meteorology And Hydrology (CIMH) Analysis
Disclaimer: The CIMH provides special weather interpretation of the current and forecasted tropical weather affecting the Caribbean Region and is NOT an official forecasting agency.
The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) is closely monitoring Tropical Storm Philippe as it continues on its trajectory towards the Lesser Antilles. CIMH has provided the below weather update as at 11:00 AM, Sunday October 1st, 2023.
Tropical Cyclone Philippe is currently not a well-organized. The storm appears to be moving westward resulting in an increased risk to the northern Leeward Islands.
The new forecast necessitated the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and Barbuda.
Further westward shifts to the system may result in additional states issuing watches/warnings later today since Philippe has not been a “well-behaved”/ predictable in its trajectory. An estimated six (6) mm of rainfall per hour is expected.
Strong shear should continue near Philippe over the next few days leading to little overall change in strength during that time.
A gradual lessening of the shear is anticipated by Tuesday October 3rd, 2023, but model guidance is in poor agreement on whether the shear will be low enough for significant strengthening as suggested by many of the regional hurricane models.
IN SUMMARY: Tropical Storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands Monday and Monday night, October 2nd, 2023, as Philippe passes near or just northeast of the area.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Antigua and Barbuda. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this system as additional watches or warnings may be required later today or tonight.
Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered flash flooding, particularly across Barbuda and Antigua, through Tuesday October 3rd, 2023.
Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) Actions
The CDEMA Executive Director has activated the Regional Coordination Plan (RCP) as of 11:00 AM today, Sunday October 1st, 2023.
CDEMA CU has established and maintains communication with the National Office of Disaster Services (NODS) in Antigua and Barbuda.
The National Disaster Coordinator has informed that the national emergency management mechanism has been placed on alert and continues to monitor the progress of TS Philippe.
The CDEMA CU urges the northern Leeward Participating States to continue to monitor the progress of this system as given the erratic forecast, additional watches/ warnings may be required later today into tomorrow.
The CDEMA CU along with the Partners of the Regional Response Mechanism (RRM) will continue to monitor Tropical Storm Philippe and provide updates, as necessary.
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