One of the disturbances east of us is now likely to become a Tropical Cyclone in 5 days and head in our general direction


A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with

another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the

Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized

showers and thunderstorms.


Development of this system is likely to

be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west-

northwestward at about 15 mph.  After that, a tropical depression

is more likely to form early next week over the central tropical

Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more

favorable for development.


* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.


Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of

Africa over the weekend.  An area of low pressure is expected to

form from the wave, and some development of this low will be

possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the

far eastern tropical Atlantic.


* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.