NHC monitoring 5 systems in the Atlantic


It is an active week for the Atlantic basin with 5 systems that NHC are monitoring, with 3 of them could becoming tropical depressions by midweek.


Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021


For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


  1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low

pressure over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have increased

overnight and are showing signs of organization. Environmental

conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical

depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the

system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of

northeastern Mexico.  Additional development is possible through the

middle of next week if the system remains over water, and  interests

along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the

progress of this disturbance as watches may be required for portions

of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and Texas later this morning or

this afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently

en route to investigate the system this morning.


Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce

heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, which may lead

to flash flooding and mudslides.  By late today, heavy rain is

expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with

a heavy rain threat continuing across those coastal areas through

the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are

possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and

isolated river flooding.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.


  1. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in

association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde

Islands.  Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for

development, and the chances of tropical depression formation are

decreasing while the system moves westward over the far eastern

tropical Atlantic.  By the middle of the week, stronger upper-level

winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit

additional development.  This disturbance could bring locally heavy

rain across the Cabo Verde Islands today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.


  1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far

northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of the

Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards

warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some

tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next couple of

days.  After that time, the system is forecast to move inland over

Portugal ending any further development chance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.


  1. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of

Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system is

possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the

middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern

tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.


  1. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the

southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a

tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough.  Gradual

development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression

could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the

Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.


Forecaster Brown




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