Tropical Cyclone Information Statement
Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service
9:00 PM ECT Tuesday, October 15, 2024
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…Tropical Depression Could Form and Pass Over or Near the Area…
The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service is monitoring the progress of Tropical Disturbance AL94.
The system could develop into a tropical cyclone and pass over or near the area on Friday.
Tropical Disturbance AL94 will possibly become a tropical cyclone in the next seven days. However, most models surveyed forecast the center to pass north of the islands.
Based on the latest information, the risk to life and property in the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands from this system is low. However, be aware and be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.
At 8 PM ECT (0000 UTC), Tropical Disturbance AL94 was centered about 1,108 miles east of the Leeward Islands.
The system is moving west at about 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph, with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and there is a 30 percent chance of AL94 becoming a tropical depression in 48 hours and a 60 percent chance of it becoming a tropical depression in seven days.
Please note that there are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for the area; thus, there are no hazards projected from this system at this time.
Residents should continue to monitor, be aware, and remain prepared for the hurricane season.
The next update will be around 2 PM tomorrow, or sooner if required.
Forecaster Dale Destin
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NCH: Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward,
and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development during the latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and
Virgin Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.
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