Dear Editor,
Since the UPP used AI to write their manifesto, I decided to use ChatGPT to analyze the UPP’s manifesto Here’s what it determined:
The UPP manifesto has a basic fiscal problem: it promises to cut several of the government’s biggest indirect revenue streams while also adding new recurrent spending, public-sector benefits, subsidies, capital projects, arrears payments, and new institutions — without identifying a serious replacement revenue source.
That is the core fiscal consequence.
The big picture
Antigua and Barbuda’s fiscal position has improved recently, but it remains tight. The IMF says public debt fell from around 100% of GDP in 2020 to about 67% in 2024, but gross financing needs are still projected around 10% of GDP, and the country still needs further domestic revenue mobilization because tax revenues remain low by regional standards. ([IMF][1])
That matters because the UPP platform is not being proposed in a country with huge unused fiscal room. It is being proposed in a country where the IMF is saying, in effect: you still need more reliable revenue, not less.
The largest revenue risks
1. Tax-free “essential goods” basket
UPP promises to remove “all taxes, duties, and mark-ups” on a redesigned basket of essential goods. ([MyUPP][2])
Politically, that is easy to sell. Fiscally, it is dangerous unless tightly defined. Antigua and Barbuda relies heavily on indirect taxes, especially ABST, import duties and the Revenue Recovery Charge. The 2025 budget expected ABST to generate EC$492.8 million, import duties EC$162.2 million, and RRC EC$127.6 million.
So if the “essential basket” is broad, the revenue loss could be substantial. If it is narrow, the consumer benefit may be modest. The manifesto does not define the basket, estimate the cost, or say what replaces the lost revenue.
2. Duty-free vehicles
This is probably one of the biggest holes.
UPP promises that personal vehicles up to seven years old will be 100% duty-free, commercial vehicles will receive 50% lower duties, and farm vehicles/equipment will be fully exempt. ([MyUPP][2])
That directly cuts into import duty revenue and likely into related customs revenue. It could also increase vehicle imports, worsening congestion, road wear, fuel imports, and foreign-exchange leakage. In other words, the fiscal cost is not only the lost duty; it may also increase future infrastructure pressure.
The party frames this as affordability. But fiscally it is a broad tax cut on a high-value import category, not a targeted poverty measure.
3. Dollar Barrel twice yearly
UPP promises to restore the Dollar Barrel twice yearly, with up to three barrels per household per cycle. ([MyUPP][2])
Again, politically popular. But it is another customs-revenue concession. It also creates leakage: higher-income households and diaspora-connected families may benefit as much as, or more than, the poorest households. As fiscal policy, it is less efficient than targeted vouchers or direct support.
The largest spending pressures
1. Public-sector wage and benefit commitments
The manifesto promises to review civil servants’ salaries, peg compensation to qualifications, upgrade non-established workers to a base of EC$2,700/month, peg teacher compensation to qualifications, pay coaches based on qualifications, review pensions annually, peg pensions/benefits to inflation, and increase the People’s Benefit Card. ([MyUPP][2])
This is the most dangerous category because it is recurrent spending. Once salaries, pensions and benefits go up, they are politically and practically hard to reverse.
Public-sector wages were already projected around EC$485.6 million by the end of 2025, according to the 2026 government prospectus. ([Eastern Caribbean Securities Exchange][3]) If UPP adds qualification-linked upgrades and a higher floor for non-established workers, that could permanently raise the wage bill.
2. Health, education, policing and courts
Several pledges imply more staff, more facilities, or longer service hours: reopening clinics, restoring night clinics, putting functioning clinics in every constituency, expanding mental health services, increasing police presence, restoring Magistrates’ Courts in All Saints, Bolans, Parham and Barbuda, and expanding prosecutorial capacity. ([MyUPP][2])
These are not just one-time capital costs. They require doctors, nurses, clerks, police, prosecutors, maintenance, utilities, equipment, security and administration.
The manifesto repeatedly treats service expansion as a governance promise, but fiscally it is a payroll and operating-cost promise.
3. Sports infrastructure
The sports pillar is enormous: an 8,000-seat football stadium, a 5,000-seat indoor facility, Yasco Track upgrade, high-performance training centre, aquatics facility, tennis upgrades, drag racing and rally tracks, and support for elite athletes. ([MyUPP][2])
This is a major capital programme. Even if some elements are done through public-private partnerships, government typically still pays through land, guarantees, concessions, infrastructure works, maintenance, or opportunity cost.
The manifesto says “will be built — not promised,” but gives no costing, phasing discipline, financing source, operating model, or maintenance plan.
4. Water, roads and utilities
The WATA programme, household/community water storage, pipe-laying, reverse-osmosis maintenance, leak-response teams, farm-water discounts, and ending the practice of homeowners paying for APUA poles and pipes all have real fiscal or quasi-fiscal costs. ([MyUPP][2])
Some of this may sit on APUA rather than central government, but that still matters. If APUA is required to absorb costs, discount water, expand service, and finance connections, the burden may eventually return to government through subsidies, arrears, borrowing, or higher tariffs elsewhere.
The most fiscally explosive promise
The debt-settlement pledge is potentially huge.
UPP says that within the first year it would settle 50% of the debt central government owes to contractors and vendors, convert the remainder into a bond to be paid off within a further year, and settle outstanding severance payments to LIAT and CAS workers. ([MyUPP][2])
This sounds responsible in principle — paying arrears is good. But the fiscal consequence depends on the size of verified arrears. The IMF has specifically flagged arrears as an obstacle to debt sustainability and financing access. ([IMF][4])
So UPP is promising to accelerate arrears clearance while also cutting revenue and raising recurrent spending. That combination is the problem.
The hidden contradiction
The manifesto says it will “increase GDP in a responsible manner while controlling the Debt-to-GDP ratio.” ([MyUPP][2])
But the platform’s actual fiscal direction is:
*Less revenue*
through tax-free goods, duty-free vehicles, lower commercial vehicle duties, farm exemptions, reduced sports-equipment duties, repealed Entertainment Tax, concessions and subsidies.
*More recurrent spending*
through wages, pensions, benefits, clinics, courts, policing, youth programmes, public-sector reforms and new departments.
*More capital spending*
through roads, water, schools, sports facilities, aquatics, airport upgrades, renewable energy, urban beautification and housing-linked infrastructure.
That does not automatically mean it is impossible. But it does mean the manifesto needs a fiscal table. Without one, the numbers do not add up on their face.
Bottom line
The fiscal consequence is likely a larger deficit, higher borrowing, slower arrears clearance, or pressure to reintroduce taxes later — unless UPP either sharply narrows the promises, delays the capital projects, finds major new revenue, or cuts spending elsewhere.
[1]: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2025/04/14/antigua-and-barbuda-2025-article-iv-consultation-press-release-and-staff-report-566167?utm_source=chatgpt.com “2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report”
[2]: https://www.myupp.org/about/manifesto-2026 “2026 People’s Platform | United Progressive Party | UPP Antigua & Barbuda”
[3]: https://www.ecseonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ECCBLIB-1484105-v1-APPROVED-_Government_of_Antigua_and_Barbuda__RGSM_Prospectus_2026.cleaned.pdf “Approved – 2025 Government of Antigua and Barbuda Prospectus”
[4]: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/03/17/pr25067-antigua-and-barbuda-imf-executive-board-concludes-2025-article-iv-consultation?utm_source=chatgpt.com “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV …”
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