Dale C. S. Destin |
The prediction for rainfall remains unpromising. My latest updated forecast continues to call for most likely below normal rainfall for Antigua. The most likely total for the year is 1089 (42.9 in), up 9 mm (0.4 in) from the previous forecast. There is also a 70 percent or high confidence of the rainfall total falling in the range of 827 to 1405 mm (32.6 to 55.3 in).
The main reason for the below normal rainfall forecast is the cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), during the first half of the year, which led to a drier than normal dry season – January to June. Cooler than normal TNA SSTs favour suppressed rainfall conditions while the opposite enhances rainfall.
There is a La Niña underway, and this historically favours above normal rainfall for our area.
Thus, the latter half of the year will most likely see near normal rainfall. However, because we are so deep in drought, normal rainfall is not going to cut it.
Notwithstanding, below normal rainfall being most likely, there are relatively healthy probabilities for near or above normal totals – there is hope, think rain.
A typical year, based on the new standard climate period 1991-2020, averages 1156.7 mm (45.54 in).
The dry season averages 410 mm (16.14 in) and the wet season, July to December, averages 746.8 mm (29.40 in). Fall/autumn, September-November, accounts for 58 percent of the wet season total and 38 percent of the year’s total.
Regardless of the forecast, we all need to conserve water and be as efficient with its use as much as possible.
Reducing our personal water footprint will literally redound to our individual and collective socio-economic benefit.
Minimising your water footprint is also good for the climate, good for our environment and good for rainfall.
This forecast will be updated during the first week of August.
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