SOURE:CNN– The International Monetary Fund has modestly reduced its forecast for global economic growth this year, but warned the damage from the war with Iran could be much more severe if the conflict dragged on and oil prices rose further.
“The global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor at the IMF, wrote in the fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report, published today. The conflict could still cause a global “energy crisis on an unprecedented scale,” he added.
The IMF now expects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, a 0.2 percentage point downgrade from its January forecast. This modest revision assumes that the war will be “relatively short-lived,” it said. Global inflation is also seen rising to 4.4% this year.
However, the fund also outlined two scenarios for a longer-lasting conflict. Under the more severe of these — in which oil and natural gas prices spike 100-200% relative to January and stay at that level into 2027 — global economic growth would come in at only 2% this year.
That would amount to “a close call for a global recession,” defined as economic growth below 2%, which has happened only four times since 1980, the IMF said.
Before the war, the global economy was performing better than expected, with growth on track to be revised upward this year, it noted. In one positive development, the downward revision was partly offset by reduced US tariff rates compared with last year, the IMF said.
CNN’s Olesya Dmitracova contributed reporting.
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Hmmmmm! Let’s see if UPP can fix this global growth trajectory. Or let’s see if the say is Gaston’s fault.
UPP’s bestfriend. Lovell plunged the country into the IMF latrine. Let’s not give upp the chance to repeat their signature policy on our economy
It’s GB fault, because Antigua has no surplus to fall back to, because this government has looted and drain the peoples purse.
If you look in the Treasury right now, there is nothing in there..people can’t even get their back pay, and it will be even longer now for them to wait for that little money.
Economic powerhouse my back foot.
I told y’all this was coming.
GB has squandered the Golden years of Antigua’s economic opportunities. With the many lucrative investments that has come into the island in the last 12-13 years now, now no money from all dem taxes can be found, or did he not collect the taxes by giving all his cronies a big break?
Look what he did with the vehicle thief, swept it under the table..prime example. And that’s just one such mis judgement. LIAT will certainly collapse under this storm that’s coming..another terrible deal. Millions gone in that one.
And from the CIP to the ABST, there is nothing left.
Oh, I forgot that this foolish government forgive the 7% taxes or so on investment income to these CIP crooks.
Where are they now?
We all know for years that the Caribbean was a place where crooks hide their money, and this government has given these CIP crooks a massive pass, and now we lost our visa privileges to the US and Canada, and most certainly the EU to come.
So yes it’s GB fault for not having a surplus in the Treasury, but I bet he has some in his various bank accounts around the world.
This election was called for this very reason, most abruptly, because GB saw the shit storm coming and wanted to stay in power.
He did not call it for Antigua and it’s people, because Antiguan’s do not benefit one bit from this government in power..and I mean all Antiguan’s, not just those who come on this ANR thread with their Cultish support for a foolish dictator.
Real fools. They always say a fool and his money shall soon depart.
Watch Antigua suffer. I predicted this, many didn’t listen. This government is a sham. You cannot build your house on sand.