Hurricane season is heating up, experts monitoring 3 areas for tropical development during the next 5 days in the Atlantic basin.

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Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

  1. Central Tropical Atlantic:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low  pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles  has changed little this morning.

Although environmental conditions  are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of  this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days.

The disturbance is forecast to move  slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the  northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

 

  1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  pressure located between the west coast of Africa and the  Cabo Verde Islands have become slightly better organized.

Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a  short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during  the next couple of days.  By late this week, environmental  conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development.

Regardless, the system could bring locally  heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through  Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

  1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:

An area of low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone  over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles  west-southwest of the westernmost Azores.

Environmental conditions  are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or  subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days  while the system drifts generally eastward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service

can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01

KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

 

Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

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