The Weather Channel – Tropical Storm Idalia may rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Florida on Wednesday.
Life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rain are all expected from parts of Florida later Tuesday through Wednesday, spreading to the Southeast coast by Wednesday and Thursday.
If you live in an area prone to storm surge, be sure to follow the advice of local officials if evacuations are ordered. The latest on how people are preparing for Idalia can be found here.
Here’s where Idalia is now and where it’s headed: Idalia is centered between western Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane later Monday as it crawls northward.
The latest data suggest Idalia should move northward into the Gulf of Mexico and then turn toward the northeast.
On that track, the hurricane would make landfall on Wednesday along Florida’s Gulf Coast. After that, most computer models suggest it would take a bend, tracking through Georgia and the Carolinas through Thursday.
How strong could Idalia become: Gulf of Mexico water remains very warm, even by late August standards.
Idalia is also likely to get a boost from its track over the Gulf of Mexico loop current, a northward flowing ribbon of deeper, warmer warmer from the western Caribbean Sea into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
All other factors equal, warmer water can provide more fuel for a tropical storm or hurricane to intensify.
Furthermore, computer models suggest upper-level winds will become favorable for quick intensification. The National Hurricane Center noted in its Monday morning discussion that “rapid intensification is becoming increasingly likely before landfall.”
Therefore, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting Idalia to become a hurricane Monday and be near or at Category 3 intensity before its Florida landfall.
Hurricane and tropical storm alerts: A hurricane warning is in effect from the middle of Longboat Key to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions (74+ mph winds) are expected within the area within 24 hours.
Hurricane watches have been issued for parts of the Florida coast to the west and also south of the hurricane warning area as well as for inland areas of north-central Florida and south-central Georgia.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for many other parts of Florida and south Georgia, as shown in the map below.
Storm surge is a major danger in Florida: A storm surge warning is in effect for Englewood to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay. This means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within that area, generally within 36 hours.
Storm surge watches are in effect for other parts of the Florida coast and southeast Georgia.
Water levels could reach the following heights if the peak surge coincides with high tide:
-Aucilla River, Florida, to Chassahowitzka, Florida: 7-11 feet
-Chassahowitzka, Florida, to Anclote River, Florida: 6-9 feet
-Ochlockonee River, Florida, to Aucilla River, Florida: 4-7 feet
-Anclote River, Florida, to middle of Longboat Key, Florida: 4-7 feet
-Tampa Bay: 4-7 feet
-Middle of Longboat Key, Florida, to Englewood, Florida: 3-5 feet
You can see the latest storm surge forecast in the map below for the locations mentioned as well as other areas.
Flooding rain expected in Florida and the Southeast: Heavier rain appears to begin sometime Tuesday, continuing into Thursday from Florida into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. That will likely trigger local flash flooding in some areas.
Parts of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas may receive 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated higher amounts of 12 inches possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Damaging winds will reach far from the center. Locations where hurricane warnings are in effect could see widespread power outages and numerous downed trees.
Tropical storm force winds will reach areas of Florida in the hurricane warning on Tuesday with hurricane force winds expected by late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Elsewhere, at least scattered power outages and some tree damage can be expected from northeast Florida and south Georgia into the coastal Carolinas.
Tornadoes are also a threat midweek. Isolated tornadoes may develop ahead of Idalia on Tuesday along the west-central Florida coast and will spread into the Big Bend area by Tuesday night.
The threat for a few tornadoes may persist across parts of northern Florida Wednesday morning and will spread along the Southeast coast later Wednesday.
Stay up to date on the latest forecast changes and review and ready your hurricane preparation plans.
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