TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service
8:50 AM ECT Wednesday, July 31, 2024
…Tropical Disturbance Affecting the Area…
The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service continues to monitor a tropical disturbance actively passing over the Northeast Caribbean, including the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands.
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The disturbance is currently an active tropical wave and is expected to exit the area by late tomorrow, Thursday.
The system, potentially becoming AL97, is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane) before leaving the Northeast Caribbean.
Therefore, it poses little to no threat to the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands.
The risk of significant wind, rainfall, or sea conditions is very low, requiring no immediate action.
As of 8 AM ECT (1200 UTC), the tropical disturbance was centered over Antigua, moving west-northwest at approximately 12 mph.
Maximum sustained winds are less than 25 mph, with higher gusts mainly over water to the north of the islands. Strengthening is forecasted after the system passes the area.
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There is a near-zero percent chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a 60 percent chance of formation within the next seven days.
Based on the latest information, no significant hazards, except for lightning, are anticipated from this system. However, some heavy rainfall is expected today and into parts of Thursday.
Accumulations could lead to minimal or minor flooding, with up to 75 mm (3 inches) of rain already recorded in the last 12 hours across parts of the Leeward Islands.
An additional 25 to 50 mm (1 to 2 inches) of rain is possible, with similar totals expected to spread across the British Virgin Islands.
No alerts, watches, or warnings are currently in effect for the area, and none are required at this time.
Residents are advised to continue monitoring the disturbance and ensure their hurricane season plans are prepared.
The next update will be provided around 8 AM tomorrow, or sooner if necessary.
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