At 11:00 PM AST (03:00 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 59.6 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h).
A westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands by early Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.
Ernesto is then forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
- Key messages: Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
- Rainfall: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf.
- Elsewhere in the Caribbean: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
- Windward Islands: 1 to 4 inches
- Eastern Hispaniola: 2 to 4 inches
- Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.
- Storm Surge: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will also raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
- Surf: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
- Next intermediate advisory at 2:00 AM AST.
- Next complete advisory at 5:00 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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