Regional pollster and political analyst Peter Wickham says Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley is well placed to retain office after calling a snap general election, though low voter turnout could pose a challenge.
Ms Mottley announced on Saturday that elections will be held on 11 February, a year ahead of the end of her five-year term. It is the second early poll she has called.
Mr Wickham said the timing was not unexpected, noting there had been speculation for months that an election would be called early in the year.
He said the prevailing view in Barbados is that Ms Mottley will win another term, with little sense that the governing Barbados Labour Party is at risk of defeat.
However, he warned that voter apathy may be the main issue, pointing to low turnout at the last general election.
“The key concern is participation,” Mr Wickham said, adding that motivating voters to go to the polls would be the prime minister’s biggest challenge.
He suggested the early election was called because the government believes it has a political advantage, as the opposition has struggled to gain traction and unity.
Mr Wickham said the expectation remains that Ms Mottley will secure victory, with attention likely to focus on the size of her majority rather than the outcome itself.
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What most people do not know is that Barbados was one of the Caribbean islands that the US has pressured to accept refugees. This must be one of the reasons why the Barbados Prime Minister is seeking a fresh mandate. Clearly she cannot break this agreement to the Barbados citizenry and would rather seek a fresh mandate before breaking the news. Some people think that had Barbados not agreed to accept refugees, they could also lose their US Embassy, perhaps to Trinidad and Tobago. Other countries pressured to take refugees are Belize, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, St. Lucia, St.Kitts and Nevis and Guyana. The US has over 7500 refugees that they are trying to remove and resettle in 2026 and many might be headed to the Caribbean. Countries refusing to cooperate with the US and accept their refugees are exposed to indirect sanctions concluding visa restrictions as well as restrictions to their international corresponding banking acumen. Our leaders are trying to cope with difficult decisions of economic pragmatism and practical submission. How they leverage the good out of the present chaos and return to normal programming is gonna be closely watched.