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Following an exceptionally quiet stretch during the typical peak weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather hurricane experts are urging people, businesses and officials to remain prepared for an expected increase in tropical activity later this month.
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“The climatological peak of hurricane season is Sept. 10. This is the time of year when water temperatures in the Atlantic typically peak, and atmospheric conditions are most conducive for tropical development. The frequency of storms in the Atlantic basin is highest on average on Sept. 10, according to historical data,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “This will likely be the first time in nearly a decade that the peak of hurricane season passes without a named storm. This rare occurrence has only happened three times in the last 30 years.”
This hurricane season also marks the first time in more than 30 years of back-to-back years without a named storm in the Atlantic basin on Labor Day.
A surge of dry air has limited tropical development in the main development region of the Atlantic this week.
Download the latest AccuWeather® forecast graphics
“It is unusual for the tropics to be this quiet, but not unexpected. AccuWeather predicted in March, when we issued our hurricane season forecast, that surges of dry air could lead to a midseason lull,” DaSilva explained. “We have been forecasting the second half of the season to be more active than the first.”
AccuWeather hurricane experts say less dry air, less Saharan dust, and less disruptive wind shear is forecast in the Atlantic starting next week.
Sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content in the Gulf have surged to record territory for this time of year. Ocean heat content is a measurement of the depth of warm ocean waters.
“This exceptional warmth in the Gulf is troubling,” DaSilva said. “The ocean heat content in the Gulf has soared to a new record high that has not been reported before at any point in the season, not just the climatological peak.”
Download the latest AccuWeather® forecast graphics
“This exceptional warmth in the Gulf is troubling, The warm waters can act as fuel for developing tropical storms and strengthening hurricanes,” DaSilva explained. “Atmospheric conditions are forecast to be conducive for tropical development in late September. We are concerned about the risk of rapid intensification if a storm forms or moves into the very warm waters of the Gulf later this month. Conditions are primed for explosive, rapid intensification.”
AccuWeather 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
– 13 to 18 named storms
– 7 to 10 hurricanes
– 3 to 5 major hurricanes
– 3 to 6 direct U.S. impacts
– The second half of the season is expected to have more tropical activity than the first
– Increased risk of tornadoes and flooding from tropical storms and hurricanes reaching farther inland this year
– Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, the Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina, Atlantic Canada, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands face a higher-than-average risk of a direct impact this year
Additional AccuWeather® Resources:
Atlantic unusually quiet at hurricane season’s peak, but warm waters to fuel storms soon
What is wind shear and how does it impact hurricanes, other tropical cyclones?
Flooding concerns grow in Florida as thunderstorms repeat
Kiko to pass north of Hawaii, still bringing rain and heavy surf to Islands
What is La Nina?
Survey reveals which natural disasters scare Americans the most
Rip currents account for over 80% of beach rescues, but what are they and how can you stay safe?
Flooding and tornado impacts could reach far inland again this Atlantic hurricane season
AccuWeather® forecasting 3-6 direct storm impacts to the U.S. during the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season
AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes
AccuWeather® Hurricane Tracker
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