…JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BARBUDA…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION: 15.9N 59.1W
ABOUT: 310 MI (495 KM) ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH (30 KM/H)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 MB (29.50 INCHES)
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
- Tropical Storm Warning in effect for:
- Barbuda
- Tropical Storm Watch in effect for:
- Antigua, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
- St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
- Sint Maarten
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- Guadeloupe and adjacent islands
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 59.1 West.
Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected late today, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages: For Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Barbuda later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the watch area later today into Friday.
RAINFALL: Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 6 inches, are expected across the Leeward and Virgin Islands. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals up to 6 inches.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to reach the Leeward and Windward Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 2:00 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 5:00 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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