DALE DESTIN: As of 5 p.m., the news remains relatively good.
Jerry continues to follow the forecast track that keeps its centre passing north of the islands. The probability of experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force winds has decreased further to 8% for Antigua and 31% for Barbuda. The chance of hurricane-force winds is now near 0% for both islands, with even lower probabilities for other islands in the vicinity.
NCH: At 5:00 p.m. AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 54.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed should begin Thursday night, followed by a northward motion Friday night and Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane late this week or this weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday into Friday.
RAINFALL: On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm total maxima up to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into Saturday morning due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
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