ACCUWEATHER: Oscar will likely not mark an end to tropical activity in the southwestern Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean Sea. Eyes have turned to the Caribbean once again for the chance of a new tropical threat next week.
“We suspect there will be another attempt for a tropical depression or tropical storm to brew in the western Caribbean during the middle to the latter part of next week,” Rayno said, “As a result, we have issued an advanced risk development zone.”
While Gulf water temperatures have trended back to near average, waters remain quite warm over the Caribbean, and deep ocean warmth over the prime development area of the Atlantic remains well above the historical average.
“Indications are that disruptive winds (wind shear) will remain low into next week over the western Caribbean,” Rayno added.
A large storm or gyre may again form near the western Caribbean, which, when factoring in warm waters and low wind shear, could foster new but slow development. Both Oscar and Nadine struggled for days to evolve fully into tropical storms until the very last minute.
After Oscar, the next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Patty.
The track of any new tropical feature in the Caribbean will depend on exactly where it forms and the overall strength and movement of non-tropical features farther to the north over the United States and the western Atlantic.
From a climatological standpoint, tropical storms that form in this area late in October and early in November tend to track into Central America or possibly to the north-northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas. However, a track into Florida or the southeastern U.S. mainland is not out of the question at this early juncture.
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