New Year, New Numbers: CARICOM’s 2026 Forecast

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The new year begins on stable footing for Caribbean economies, according to the World Bank’s latest projections.

Guyana remains the region’s standout performer, with growth projected at 23% as its oil and gas sector continues to expand. That trajectory has lifted the regional aggregate: Caribbean growth overall is forecast at 5.8%, though excluding Guyana, the figure settles at a still-solid 3.1%.

Several economies are positioned for healthy expansion. Dominica and Grenada are both forecast to grow 3.4%, with Suriname (3.3%) and Trinidad and Tobago (3.2%) close behind. St. Vincent and the Grenadines round out the upper tier at 2.9%.

Tourism-anchored economies like Belize (2.4%), St. Lucia (2.3%), and Barbados (2.0%) are expected to maintain steady momentum. Jamaica (1.7%) and The Bahamas (1.2%) face softer growth prospects, while Haiti’s forecast (2.0%) remains subject to considerable uncertainty.

As 2026 begins, the data points to a region holding its ground, with room to build.

SourceWorld Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2025

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