AccuWeather expert meteorologists say high ocean temperatures and the forecast for conducive atmospheric conditions could allow one to three named tropical storms to form in the Atlantic basin during the month of November.
“We’ve been saying since March that the end of this year’s hurricane season could be quite active,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “We’re expecting a late-season surge in the month of November with another one to three named storms possible in the Atlantic basin.”
DaSilva says there is also the potential of tropical trouble brewing in the early days of December, outside of the official Atlantic hurricane season, which ends on Nov. 30.
“We may even see a tropical storm in December this year. It doesn’t happen very often, but the very warm sea surface temperatures could make it possible this year,” DaSilva said.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there is virtually no risk of direct impacts in November to the western Gulf of Mexico along the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coastline. Due to weather patterns, wind shear and climatology, AccuWeather expert meteorologists say any late-season tropical impacts to the United States are more likely to affect Florida and the East Coast.
“The entire state of Florida up into the Carolinas could be at risk of experiencing another tropical impact this season. This region is already vulnerable after dealing with multiple landfalls earlier this year,” DaSilva warned. “The western and central Gulf of Mexico coastline likely will not see any direct impacts for the rest of this hurricane season.”
High Risk for Development This Week
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there is a high risk for potential tropical development starting Friday in the southern Caribbean.
“We’re becoming more confident that the next named storm in the Atlantic basin could form within the next week,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “There is a large area of high-pressure building across the northeast that has sent a stalled front southward. That sets off a chain reaction that begins with showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean.”
DaSilva says families, businesses, emergency officials and government leaders in the Caribbean islands should be on alert for the potential of tropical impacts in early November.
“We’re already starting to see the early signs of development with showers and thunderstorms developing in the southern Caribbean. As the area of high pressure builds to the north, it’s going to create a very favorable environment for intensification. This could lead to a tropical storm or even a hurricane in the first few days of November. We expect very little wind shear, and the water temperatures are exceptionally warm for this time of year.”
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there are two likely scenarios for the track, if a storm develops within the next week.
“Climatology favors a more north or northeast track for storms that develop in this region in November. If a storm develops, it could move across Cuba or Hispaniola and move out into the open Atlantic, but we do have to watch for the possibility of eventual impacts to Florida. The area of high pressure could potentially block a storm from heading out to sea and essentially force the storm to turn west toward Florida,” explained DaSilva. “The second scenario is a western track. If the area of high pressure is stronger initially, it might guide the storm due west into the Yucatan Peninsula. If the area of high pressure starts to weaken, it could allow the storm to turn to the north. There are a lot of moving pieces to this puzzle. If a storm develops, the eventual path hinges on how strong the area of high pressure will be to the north.”
The next three names for any tropical storms that develop in the Atlantic basin this season would be Patty, Rafael and Sara.
Climate Connection to Extended Hurricane Season
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Climate Expert Brett Anderson says the trend of rising ocean temperatures has contributed to an increased risk of potential tropical development well through November and even into December.
“Sea surface temperatures and the ocean heat content, which measures the amount of available heat from the ocean surface down to 2,000 meters, currently remains at almost record-high levels in the Caribbean. The western and southern Caribbean is typically the most likely area for tropical development during the month of November,” said Anderson. “Monitoring long-term ocean heat content trends is one of the many ways to measure the rate of global warming and climate change. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that this warming trend is going to stop or reverse anytime soon.”
Anderson says the trend of storms forming outside of the official Atlantic hurricane season from June through November is expected to continue in the decades to come.
“The presence of this widespread and record-high ocean heat content this year means basins such as the western Caribbean will likely remain abnormally warm well into next year and possibly well beyond that,” Anderson explained. “In addition to providing extra heat energy to fuel rapid intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes, those warm waters may also lengthen the hurricane season beyond what has been typically the norm over the past century. An earlier start and a later end to the hurricane season may very well be what our near future holds.”
Anderson says water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are starting to drop following a summer with exceptionally warm waters that shattered records.
“The ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have trended back toward readings we historically see this time of year, after spiking with record high temperatures earlier this season. Part of the reason water temperatures have dropped is due to the upwelling of cooler water toward the surface following recent storms and hurricanes passing over these waters,” said Anderson. “I expect the surface water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Atlantic coast to be generally above the historical average through the winter season. Warmer ocean waters can enhance storms, leading to stronger coastal storms and more severe thunderstorms.”
Anderson says ongoing research is underway to determine how warmer water temperatures will contribute to the frequency and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in the future.
“Many scientific studies have predicted that the number of hurricanes would not necessarily increase with global warming, but that the number of hurricanes developing to major or extreme intensity would likely increase. So far, those predictions seem to be mostly on target,” Anderson explained. “Even though water temperatures in the Atlantic basin may be abnormally warm, it does not mean that there will be an increase in the number of hurricanes. Wind shear still plays a critical role in whether or not a disturbance can form into a storm or hurricane, especially during the early and late part of the hurricane season.”
Costly and Deadly Hurricane Season
AccuWeather expert meteorologists accurately predicted an ‘explosive’ hurricane season when the AccuWeather 2024 U.S. Hurricane Season Forecast was first issued in March, ahead of other weather sources.
Since March, AccuWeather has been forecasting four to six direct impacts to the United States.
Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, Helene and Milton have made landfall in the U.S. so far this season, along with an unnamed storm in North Carolina.
More than 300 deaths in the U.S. have been linked to impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes so far this year.
AccuWeather experts estimate that the total damage and economic loss from tropical storm and hurricane impacts in the United States so far this year are near $500 billion.
- AccuWeather’s Preliminary Estimate of the Total Damage and Economic Loss from Hurricane Beryl in the United States is $28-32 Billion
- AccuWeather’s Preliminary Estimate of the Total Damage and Economic Loss from Hurricane Debby in the United States is $28 Billion
- AccuWeather’s Preliminary Estimate of the Total Damage and Economic Loss from Hurricane Francine in the United States is $9 Billion
- AccuWeather’s Preliminary Estimate of the Total Damage and Economic Loss from an Unnamed Storm with Tropical Storm Impacts in North Carolina is $7 Billion
- AccuWeather’s Preliminary Estimate of the Total Damage and Economic Loss from Hurricane Helene in the United States is $225-250 Billion
“Our hearts go out to everyone impacted this hurricane season. This has been an incredibly costly and destructive hurricane season, and it’s not over yet,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “It will take years for many of these communities, families and small businesses to recover. It could take a decade or longer to recover in some of the towns hit hardest by Helene. Some communities may never fully recover from the catastrophic inland flash flooding we witnessed this year. The business and tourism losses are adding up quickly. Our estimates also consider the long-term healthcare costs. Hurricanes can take a tremendous toll on the health and well-being of people who survived these storms and were exposed to hazardous flood waters, toxic mud and dust, as well as mold and mildew inside damaged homes and apartments.”
History of November storms
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say prevailing winds blowing from the west to east in the middle latitudes, an increase in disruptive wind shear and dropping water temperatures typically reduce the risk of tropical storms developing during the month of November, but they do happen.
Since 1850, records show that 135 tropical storms have been tracked during the month of November. Approximately 75 of those formed on or after Nov. 1, but most stay away from the United States coast.
Only three hurricanes have made landfall on the Continental U.S. coast in November since 1900. The most recent November storm was Hurricane Nicole in 2022. Nicole made landfall as a Category 1 storm south of Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Nov. 10, 2022. The storm exacerbated damage from Hurricane Ian, which had hit east-central Florida just six weeks earlier.
Nearly 40 years before Nicole, Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 storm on Nov. 21, 1985, the latest November hurricane landfall on record for the country.
The hurricane unleashed drenching rains and powerful winds along the Gulf Coast and caused hundreds of millions in economic damages.
A hurricane moving in from the north made landfall near Miami, Florida, on Nov. 4, 1935, prompting the nickname “The Yankee Hurricane.” The storm caused significant damage in the area and killed five people, after killing 14 in the Bahamas.
While November hurricanes typically stay away from the United States coastline, close to a dozen hurricanes have made landfall in Central America since 1900. The most recent were Eta and Iota in 2020, both Category 4 hurricanes that hit the central coast of Belize just two weeks apart in November.
Since 1900, only one Category 5 hurricane has been observed in the Atlantic during November, an unnamed hurricane that was at that strength in the Caribbean for three days. That storm hit Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane on Nov. 9, 1932. Also known as the Huracán de Santa Cruz del Sur, the massive storm was responsible for the deaths of over 3,500 people, primarily due to a storm surge, which reached 20 feet according to a re-analysis conducted by the National Hurricane Center.
The storm is considered to be the deadliest and one of the most intense hurricanes in Cuban history. At sea, a ship measured 200-mph winds from the storm. The ship suffered heavy damage and had to be towed ashore days later.
Although Hurricane Mitch is often included in lists of infamous November hurricanes because it made landfall in Florida as a tropical storm on Nov. 5, 1998, the storm’s Category 5 status ended on Oct. 28, and landfall in Honduras was on Oct. 29.
Despite making landfall as a weakened Category 1 hurricane, the storm killed nearly 20,000 people with heavy rain that caused severe flooding and mudslides in Central America between Oct. 29 and Nov. 1.
Hurricane Lenny in November 1999 was 1 mph shy of being a Category 5 storm, but Lenny was more famous for its unusual track, moving west to east in the Caribbean. The powerful hurricane packed a punch when it roared over Puerto Rico, Colombia, Saint Croix and the Leeward Islands. There were 17 deaths directly associated with the storm, and it caused considerable damage to many of the islands in the northeastern Caribbean.
In 2001, Hurricane Michelle hit Cuba at Category 4 strength. The storm was the most damaging tropical storm to have hit the nation at the time, causing $2 billion (2001 USD) in damage and killing five people.
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