WOCA31 TAPA
Tropical Cyclone Information Statement
Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service
8:30 p.m. ECT Sunday, October 5, 2025
…Tropical cyclone likely to form and be of interest to the northeast Caribbean…
The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service continues to closely monitor tropical disturbance AL95, located over the eastern tropical North Atlantic Ocean. The system has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours as it moves generally toward the region, particularly the Leeward Islands.
Although it is still early, confidence is increasing that AL95 could strengthen into a hurricane within four days. However, it remains uncertain whether the eventual tropical cyclone will directly impact the area. Most models, including the reliable European model, currently show a storm or hurricane passing over or near the northeast Caribbean around Thursday or Friday.
Residents of the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands should continue to monitor this system closely. To be safe, everyone is reminded to remain prepared for the remainder of the hurricane season.
At 8 p.m. ECT or 0000 UTC, tropical disturbance AL95 was centered about 2,040 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving west at around 22 mph.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Formation chance through 48 hours is 50 percent, and formation chance over seven days is 70 percent. This means development is possible in the next two days and likely in the next seven.
Please note that there are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for the area at this time, but these could be required in the next 48 hours.
The next update will be around 2 p.m. tomorrow, or sooner if required.
Forecaster Dale Destin
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