International Monetary Fund staff say Antigua and Barbuda’s economy expanded in 2025 as inflation eased sharply, but warned that rising global uncertainty, climate risks and potential pressures on key revenue streams could weigh on the outlook.
In a concluding statement issued after an Article IV consultation mission to St. John’s in January, the IMF said economic growth is estimated at 3 percent in 2025, supported by a rebound in construction activity, even as tourist arrivals flattened compared with earlier years.
Inflation moderated significantly over the period, with average consumer prices estimated at 1.2 percent in 2025, down from 6.2 percent the year before. IMF staff attributed the easing largely to one-off declines in transportation costs and reduced price pressures following the post-pandemic surge.
The Fund described the overall macroeconomic situation as stable, noting that public debt levels have continued to decline and the financial system remains liquid. At the same time, it cautioned that the economic environment remains vulnerable to external shocks.
IMF staff said risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, citing prolonged global uncertainty, geopolitical fragmentation and commodity price volatility that could affect growth and financial inflows. The statement also pointed to Antigua and Barbuda’s exposure to extreme weather events and capacity constraints in the construction sector as ongoing vulnerabilities.
Additional risks stem from possible pressures on inflows from the country’s Citizenship by Investment Program, which the IMF said could face downside risks following recent changes in U.S. travel policy.
Despite these challenges, the IMF said there are also significant upside risks, including stronger-than-expected tourism demand, returns from investments in air connectivity and cruise infrastructure, and the hosting of major international events, including the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting scheduled for 2026.
Overall, IMF staff struck a cautiously positive tone, saying the economy is on a stable growth path but will require prudent fiscal management, continued reforms and resilience-building efforts to sustain gains and manage rising risks.
Advertise with the mоѕt vіѕіtеd nеwѕ ѕіtе іn Antigua!
We offer fully customizable and flexible digital marketing packages.
Contact us at [email protected]
chuptz