AccuWeather preliminarily estimates the total damage and economic loss from historic Hurricane Milton will be between $160 billion and $180 billion. AccuWeather hurricane experts have been sounding the alarm bells about the risk of a major storm following closely on the heels of Hurricane Helene for the past week and issued the first forecast for Milton’s storm at 2 p.m. EDT on Saturday, in advance of all other sources including the government’s National Hurricane Center, which did not issue their first forecast for storm surge until six hours after AccuWeather’s first forecast.
After making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane, a major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, Milton will go down as one of the most damaging and impactful storms in Florida history, along with Hurricane Helene’s estimated total damage and economic loss of $225-250 billion just two weeks ago, which resulted in significant damage from the Gulf Coast of Florida to the southern Appalachians, where a catastrophic flooding disaster occurred. Hurricane Ian in 2022, brought $180-210 billion in total damage and economic loss; others included 2017’s Hurricanes Harvey ($190 billion) and Irma ($80 billion), Sandy in 2012 ($210 billion), Katrina in 2005 ($320 billion), as adjusted for inflation. Other storms this year included $28-32 billion for Beryl and $28 billion for Debby.
This is a preliminary estimate, as the storm effects are continuing to be felt, and some areas have not yet reported complete information about damage, injuries and other impacts.
“With Hurricane Milton’s total damage and economic losses of $160-180 billion, the sum of two hurricanes in just three weeks elapsed time has a total damage and economic loss of near 2% of the country’s GDP, putting the Federal Reserve in a quandary,” said AccuWeather Founder and Executive Chairman Dr. Joel N. Myers. “On the one hand, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to reduce inflation. However, the storms cause inflation by increasing the costs of certain goods. On the other hand, the hurricanes are harmful to the economy causing some businesses to fail and others to struggle because of the disasters, so jobs are being lost, and people and overall businesses and the economy will face a long tail of economic impacts from the disasters.”
Dr. Myers went on to say, “This is not trivial because optimistic economists are looking at 1 to 2% year-over-year growth in GDP. A $225-$250 billion loss from Helene and another $160-180 billion from Hurricane Milton is close to a combined over $400 billion, almost half a trillion dollars. The GDP of the United States is $26 trillion, so this combined loss is nearly 2%, mainly focused in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2025. That may wipe out all expected growth in the economy over that period.”
Major contributing factors to the high impact of Hurricane Milton are the widespread storm surge along parts of the populated west coast of Florida, just south of Tampa Bay all the way down to Fort Myers, with some surge south of that as well as on the east coast of Florida and Georgia north of the hurricane’s track. The most destructive storm surge, perhaps with water levels of 15 feet or even higher, occurred in the area between Sarasota and Englewood. Reports from these areas indicated the water levels rapidly rose in a “violent manner,” flooding homes and businesses. A damaging storm surge of 6-10 feet occurred farther south along Florida’s west coast including Punta Gorda, Fort Myers and Naples, areas which received a catastrophic storm surge in Hurricane Ian and significant surge from Helene just a couple of weeks ago.
It is important to note that there are a limited number of water level gauges in the area that was impacted by the highest storm surge levels. Storm surveys of the damage will be required to better establish the water level inundation in these areas, a process that often can take weeks to accomplish.
The tide gauge at Fort Myers, Florida, reported a storm surge of 5.27 feet, which was the second highest water level ever recorded there with observations back to 1965. The storm surge with Milton was a bit higher than the surge observed from Hurricane Helene, just a few weeks earlier and only short of the record water level of 7.2 feet observed during Hurricane Ian in 2022.
AccuWeather meteorologists had stressed for days in advance of the storm that even a few miles difference in Milton’s path would have major implications for the storm surge impacts in Tampa Bay and therefore also in the total damage and economic loss from the storm. Since the storm made landfall near Siesta Key, the maximum damage scenario, which remained possible until the last hour before landfall, was averted. If the storm had made landfall only 20 miles farther north, the total damage and economic loss from the storm would have easily eclipsed $250 billion dollars.
AccuWeather meteorologists issued their first storm surge forecast map 41 hours before the National Hurricane Center and any other known source and were warning of the risks for a life-threatening and damaging storm surge along the west coast of Florida for days in advance of other sources.
Destructive winds gusting between 100 and 110 mph, as well as torrential rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding, impacted the entire Tampa Bay metropolitan area. This produced one of the most damaging hurricane hits of the modern era in the area despite the greatest storm surge occurring south of Tampa. Considerable structural damage has already been reported including roof failure at Tropicana Field, a crane collapse and widespread power outages.
The destructive wind gusts of 70-90 mph and extreme rainfall then rapidly spread over the heavily populated Interstate 4 corridor east of Tampa to Orlando and Daytona Beach, resulting in further wind damage, power outages and flooding. Nearly 4 million addresses have been reported out of power across Florida. Some people may be without power for two weeks or more in the hardest-hit areas due to the widespread nature and volume of the power outages.
“Another damaging impact from Milton was a destructive outbreak of particularly violent tornadoes in Milton’s rainbands, especially across the eastern part of Florida. AccuWeather’s preliminary estimate for total damage and economic loss includes the impact of the tornadoes. Nearly 40 tornadoes have already been reported with significant damage and, tragically, lives lost,” said Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather’s Senior Vice President, Weather Content and Forecast Operations and Chief Meteorologist. “Extremely moist air ahead of Milton, in combination with twisting of winds in the lower part of the atmosphere as Milton approached and some breaks in the clouds, produced an outbreak of violent tornadoes, including intense wedge-shaped tornadoes more reminiscent of Kansas than Florida.”
Numerous reports of more than 17 inches of rain have been reported, including near St. Petersburg. Extreme and even historic rainfall rates for the area were observed in some places with rain falling at the rate of 5-6 inches per hour. There have been many reports of water rescues and considerable flooding from the excessive rainfall.
These factors add up to a catastrophic situation for the state. In addition, outside of the specifics mentioned above, there were tornadoes, strong winds and heavy rain impacting other parts of the state.
This storm comes on the heels of Hurricane Helene just two weeks ago, which brought record storm surges to the Gulf Coast of Florida and flooding rain, damaging winds and long-lasting power outages northward from the Big Bend of Florida northward through much of Georgia and into the southern Appalachians. Helene brought historic flooding that has led to a major humanitarian disaster. This storm coming on the heels of Helene will stretch FEMA and the resources needed for recovery and can cause recovery to take longer.
With the damage from Helene still fresh, debris along the Gulf Coast compounded the damage, both by getting picked up by the strong winds and thrown into structures like missiles and taken by the storm surge and pushed into structures.
Considering all of the above led to AccuWeather designating Milton as a 5 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for hurricanes, even as the National Hurricane Center was forecasting the storm to make landfall as a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Unlike the Saffir-Simpson scale, which only measures wind speed, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale a six-point scale, ranging from less than 1 to 5, which includes other important factors to communicate the impacts of a storm, such as flooding rain, storm surge and total economic damage and loss on top of the wind speed.
“Milton was a historic storm over the Gulf of Mexico, twice reaching Category 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale,” said Porter. “AccuWeather exclusively issued the first forecast for the storm six hours before any other source, including the National Hurricane Center, giving valuable additional life-saving notice to those in the path of the storm. AccuWeather also indicated that Milton would become a major hurricane ahead of all other sources.”
“It should not be a surprise to see AccuWeather’s exclusive $160-180 billion preliminary estimate for total damage and economic loss from Milton, given the urgency of AccuWeather’s communication about the major storm surge, flooding risks and widespread disruption to business activities that we predicted the storm would cause throughout Florida.” According to AccuWeather, Milton caused widespread power outages, extensive damage to homes, including high-end coastal real estate and businesses, and caused significant flight delays and cancellations as well as school and airport closures. This is all on top of the cost and interruption to lives of evacuating a large part of the coastal areas along the Gulf Coast of Florida. Milton remained a hurricane the entire way as it traversed the state, bringing the flooding rain and damaging winds to places like Orlando before moving off the east coast of Florida early Thursday morning.
For the areas impacted by flooding, water damage tends to be particularly costly to repair and may either not be covered by homeowner’s insurance policies or underinsured relative to the actual damage sustained for people who do carry additional flood insurance. With the challenges known to the insurance market in Florida already, this storm will strain the system and further complicate it. Much of the damage from Milton occurred from water, whether storm surge or freshwater inland flooding.
Milton can also result in significant losses of vegetables and fruit crops such as oranges and tomatoes, which can have an even greater impact than Helene on agriculture. Price increases for some vegetables and fruits, such as oranges and tomatoes, could be seen at the grocery store within a couple of weeks.
AccuWeather started creating these damage and economic impact estimates with Hurricane Harvey in 2017, and in the seven years since, they have proven to be the most accurate source of this type of information.
AccuWeather damage and economic impact estimates include much more than insured losses and covers the long-term impacts, accounting for damage to homes, businesses, medical facilities, roadways and vehicles as well as power outages, which results in food spoilage and interruption to medical care.
AccuWeather also incorporates independent methods to evaluate all direct and indirect impacts of the storm, includes both insured and uninsured losses and is based on a variety of sources, statistics and unique techniques AccuWeather uses to estimate the damage. It includes damage to property, job and wage losses, crops, infrastructure damage, interruption of the supply chain, auxiliary business losses and flight delays. The estimate also accounts for the costs of evacuations, relocations, emergency management and the extraordinary government expenses for cleanup operations and the long-term effects on business logistics, transportation and tourism as well as the health effects and the medical and other expenses of unreported deaths and injuries.
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