AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Oct. 2, 2024 – As search and recovery efforts continue in the southern Appalachians following catastrophic flooding from Helene, AccuWeather expert meteorologists are warning families, businesses, emergency officials and government leaders in Florida to prepare for flooding rain and wind due to a potential tropical storm or even hurricane within the next week.
“We are not expecting any sort of repeat from Helene in the southern Appalachians with this next tropical threat,” said AccuWeather Flood Expert Alex Sosnowski. “However, Florida needs to be on alert for more heavy rainfall and river flooding next week.”
AccuWeather was the first known source to issue a high risk of tropical development in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico onSaturday morning. AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said families and businesses in the Florida Peninsula need to prepare for the potential of heavy, flooding rains and gusty winds by the end of this weekend into next week.
“We are forecasting an area of low pressure to organize this weekend over southern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche, and then we expect tropical development in the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week,” said Rayno. “We expect this potential tropical threat to start moving toward Florida by next Tuesday or Wednesday. The Gulf of Mexico has very different conditions this week compared to last week when we were dealing with Hurricane Helene. Last week we had abundant moisture and we didn’t have any dry air. This week there is a lot of dry air and wind shear. We expect to see a small pocket in the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico next week where there will be conducive conditions for development.”
Rayno said disruptive wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico will determine the strength and timing of tropical impacts in Florida.
“If the wind shear remains stronger, this system will likely remain disorganized and it is unlikely to develop into a hurricane. Impacts would likely be felt in Florida on Monday and Tuesday,” Rayno explained. “If the wind shear is lighter, we will likely be dealing with a named tropical storm or potentially a hurricane moving towards Florida on Tuesday into Wednesday with damaging winds, storm surge and flooding. Everyone on the Florida Peninsula needs to get ready for heavy rainfall next week.”
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said water temperatures off the Gulf coast of Florida are still exceptionally high despite Hurricane Helene churning up waters last week.
“Water temperatures continue to remain warm in the wake of Helene over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico,” said DaSilva. “Not only is the surface water warm, but it remains warm down deep so that wave action from any storm has little cooling effect.”
Historic Impacts and Critical Response Needed After Helene
AccuWeather expert meteorologists say the weather across areas hit hardest by Helene in the southern Appalachians is forecasted to remain dry through Thursday evening, which will help with the cleanup and recovery efforts. Favorable conditions for recovery are expected in this area through at least the early part of next week.
Over the last two weeks, AccuWeather issued push alerts to more than 118 million people through the AccuWeather app and AccuWeather.com about the threat of life-threatening storm surge, destructive winds and the risk of unprecedented and catastrophic inland flooding from Hurricane Helene.
“This is exactly why AccuWeather meteorologists issued alerts for a catastrophic risk to lives and property in the southern Appalachians,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “AccuWeather was the only weather source that warned of a flooding disaster as early as we did. We did everything possible that we could do to keep people safe and informed so they could prepare. The flooding rainfall from Helene has led to an overwhelming and tragic disaster in the southern Appalachians. Lives were changed forever in just a matter of minutes. Helene is clearly one of the worst flooding disasters in our nation’s history. The scope of devastation and human suffering is at the same level as what our nation faced during Hurricane Katrina and Harvey.”
Porter said the human suffering, widespread destruction of infrastructure and extended power outages have taken a tremendous emotional and financial toll on millions of Americans.
“The Carolinas have been hammered by tropical impacts in recent weeks. Hurricane Helene is responsible for a staggering $145-$160 billion in total damage and economic loss in the United States, according to a preliminary estimate from AccuWeather experts. Much of the damage and infrastructure loss happened in the southern Appalachians,” said Porter. “This has been an incredibly costly year for hurricane impacts in the United States, and the hurricane season is far from over. AccuWeather estimates the unnamed storm that triggered a once in 1,000-year rain event in the Carolinas in September caused $7 billion in total damage and economic loss.”
AccuWeather’s preliminary estimate for the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Debby is $28-$32 billion. AccuWeather’s estimate for the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Beryl is $28 billion.
AccuWeather expert meteorologists issued an alert in late August, warning people to prepare for a rapid uptick in tropical threats in September.
“AccuWeather issued an exclusive forecast warning people of a ‘Supercharged September’ after a historic lull in August and over the Labor Day holiday weekend,” Porter said. “We urged everyone not to let their guard down. AccuWeather forecasted 6-10 named storms in September. We ended up seeing six named storms, plus an unnamed subtropical storm off the coast of the Carolinas that caused billions of dollars in damage. Overall, we saw three direct impacts from storms on the United States in September.”
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