Based on the latest oceanic and atmospheric data, AccuWeather expert meteorologists believe El Niño conditions are now established in the tropical Pacific.
“The sea surface temperatures are quickly rising in the equatorial Pacific, the region that is measured for El Niño. The latest weekly numbers are averaging out just over 0.5 degrees Celsius, compared to the long-term historic average, which is the primary criteria for El Niño,” said AccuWeather expert meteorologist Paul Pastelok.“Most El Niños and La Niñas begin in the fall. This El Niño will most likely begin soon and strengthen quickly.”
What does an El Niño mean for you?
- El Niño can create higher than average wind shear across the Atlantic Basin, lessening the potential tropical development
- Higher Pacific Ocean temperatures can increase the potential for heavy rain events in the Southwest U.S., including California
- El Niño can also create drier conditions in some regions in the U.S. including those already experiencing severe drought
Hurricane Season: Fewer named storms, but risk remains
El Niño generates wind shear more frequently across the Atlantic Basin, which inhibits tropical systems from organizing and intensifying. AccuWeather’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast projects 11 to 16 named storms.
“This El Niño will likely reduce Atlantic tropical activity even more. With the El Niño’s arrival early in the hurricane season, we are now leaning closer to 11 named storms rather than 16. Inversely, the El Niño will increase eastern and central Pacific storm activity by fueling systems in the region,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
Though the number of named storms could be lower than average, it does not eliminate the threat a high impact storm. During El Niño years, homegrown hurricanes that develop close to the U.S. coastline pose a heightened risk because they leave little time for preparation. It takes only one storm to cause catastrophic damage.
AccuWeather experts believe there is a 30-40 percent chance this turns into rare “Super El Niño” meaning there is a higher confidence that El Niño conditions will last through 2026 and even into 2027.
“Based on our analysis, AccuWeather expects NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center may declare an El Niño imminently, perhaps during its scheduled update Thursday, June 11,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
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Well, we’re in the Atlantic, not the Pacific. It’s clear that El Niño will low the intensity of hurricane season AT THE ATLANTIC. But those are a well studies and investigated probabilities. Really we’re in the Caribbean, where the water get hot and, from a storm now will be a hurricane in 3 days. We have to be aware and protected. And well informed
@ Sánchez….this meteorologist scumbags is in the same umbrella..0.5= (5) all the time talks to the others scumbags…(When the craft accept all kind of B.S…the principal mean go right straight to the garbage. Be a GOYIM IS NOT A OPTION
So what this is saying in essence is that we could experience a prolonged dry season , from now into 2027. As for hurricanes/storms development the conditions will be less conducive. However, although we will be having fewer hurricanes/storms, it only takes one to cause catastrophic damages.
What is also very instructive is that the Republican lead administration in the USA does not agree on the science of Global warming. In fact they don’t believe in lots of what the rest of the world believes scientifically. So they have withdrawn funding for lots of the USA studies , in the area of scientific weather research . So with immediate effect, we will not be getting the type of weather information, hurricane warnings in advance like before. So we in the Caribbean should be preparing for the entire season from now. We need to get everything we need for an approaching hurricane – every Caribbean household should now have an emergency hurricane kit in place.
Dry food, clothing, medications – a hurricane shelter plan. Also have your important documents put away or stored in a safe place- in a bag that you can move with- your passports , birth certificates, education certificates etc.
So we should be in the state of readiness from now and throughout the entire hurricane season.
NODS needs to get this message out from now on. We cannot depend on the USA for no more information or early hurricane warnings. Not even the people in the USA can depend on its own government for early warnings. They have withdrawn financial support for these areas.
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