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By Petra Williams Petrathespectator.com
Low participation shadows Holness’s historic win
Andrew Holness and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) have made history with a third straight general election victory, taking 34 of 63 seats over the People’s National Party’s (PNP) 29.
It’s an undeniable political achievement, and a sobering civic moment. Preliminary turnout was less than 40 percent, barely above the 2020 pandemic low and far beneath the 2016 and 2011 cycles.
This is power secured, but not the broad consent a maturing democracy should crave.
Holness’s Legacy, the JLP’s Inheritance
Prime Minister Andrew Holness campaigned on a record of low unemployment, reduced poverty, and the lowest murder rate in years, paired with tax cut pledges and business friendly reforms to keep investors onside.
That economic narrative, combined with incumbency advantages and a strong ground game, proved just enough in a fractious cycle shadowed by integrity disputes and service delivery frustrations.
But the victory is narrow in scope. Winning a third consecutive term with fewer than four in ten Jamaicans voting is constitutional, but far from a resounding endorsement.
If Holness is to claim legitimacy beyond procedure, his administration must work harder to engage citizens directly and convert apathy into participation. Without such effort, the JLP risks governing as an efficient machine with a shrinking reservoir of trust.
The economy: While inflation has eased, food, transport, and energy costs still bite into household budgets.
The government promises tax cuts and targeted relief, but investors will be watching whether Jamaica can strike a delicate balance between populist relief and fiscal discipline. If credibility slips, the fragile gains of the past decade tourism recovery, investment inflows, and currency stability could unravel.
Crime and civil liberties: The 37 percent drop in murders since 2022 is significant, yet the methods are controversial. Heavy reliance on rolling States of Emergency delivered temporary calm, but risks normalising a militarised state.
Jamaicans want safe communities, not indefinite emergency measures. The JLP must prove falling crime and respect for rights can coexist.
Infrastructure: Water shortages, poor rural roads, unreliable broadband, and overcrowded classrooms remain daily irritants. Turning campaign promises into visible upgrades will be where political capital is won or squandered.
Success will be measured not just in GDP charts but in whether children can learn in safe classrooms and farmers can move produce to markets.
Constitutional reform: Holness has promised a republic, but consensus on pace and structure is elusive. Without pairing reform with anti-corruption safeguards and civic education, Jamaicans may dismiss it as symbolism without substance. Delivering a credible referendum will test the government’s capacity for statesmanship.
Jamaica’s Scope Beyond its Shores: CARICOM and Regional Affairs
Prime Minister Holness’s third term also carries weight far beyond Kingston. Within CARICOM, Jamaica is both the region’s most populous member and its most prominent international brand, with a presence that extends from tourism to athletics to culture.
International observers hail Jamaica’s fiscal turnaround. A stable JLP government will be expected to project steady leadership in a region facing mounting pressures: food security, climate financing, and debt sustainability.
Jamaica’s credibility has grown through its consistent debt management and macroeconomic discipline, positioning it as a model for fiscal reform in small economies. There is scope for Jamaica to increase its profile in regional debates over collective borrowing strategies and climate resilience funding.
A more stable Jamaican economy could also reshape migration flows within the region. Historically, Jamaica has been a major “sending” country, with waves of workers and professionals seeking opportunities in the US, UK, Canada, and wealthier Caribbean
territories. However, as investment deepens in sectors such as tourism, construction, logistics, and BPO, Jamaica is increasingly positioned as a destination hub within CARICOM. This provides opportunities for the inflow of workers into jobs, particularly in instances where regional economies are struggling to absorb young labour. This shift could ease pressure on states battling brain drain, while recasting Jamaica as not just a cultural exporter but an economic anchor in the region.
For CARICOM, this creates both promise and tension.
The promise lies in freer circular migration if free-movement protocols are fully implemented, and Jamaica joins other economies in absorbing labour surpluses and sharing opportunities.
The tension lies in a domestic backlash: if inflows grow, concerns about job competition, housing, and public services could intensify, testing Kingston’s capacity to manage integration at home while advocating for it abroad.
In foreign policy, Holness has steered a careful middle path, aligning closely with U.S. and EU partners with reasonable efforts to preserve CARICOM’s tradition of collective diplomacy.
The next five years may demand sharper choices, particularly as the region confronts Venezuela–Guyana tensions, global energy transitions, and shifting trade routes.
Jamaica’s voice will be vital, but its credibility depends on whether the Holness administration leverages its leadership potential within the region and strikes a balance between regional solidarity and national priorities.
The PNP’s Climb Back: Real, but Not Complete
Though almost doesn’t count, the 2025 election will be remembered as the year the PNP re- emerged in Jamaica’s political conversation.
From its worst showing in modern history, with just 14 seats in 2020, the party rebounded to 29 seats, flipping key battlegrounds in Kingston, St. Catherine, and western Jamaica.
That revival reflected sharper candidate selection, stronger grassroots mobilisation, and better
use of digital platforms. The PNP’s manifesto targeted working-class households, the
country’s largest demographic, helping reconnect with voters in urban centres.
Still, challenges remain.
The party is divided between traditionalists and a younger, more technocratic faction.
Its economic vision focused on progressive taxation and social spending and was light on investor assurances to fuel job creation, leaving doubts about its readiness to govern. To turn a rebound into renewal, the PNP must consolidate discipline in Parliament, nurture leadership outside elections, and sharpen its image as a credible government-in- waiting.
The 2025 election delivered history for Andrew Holness, but it also exposed Jamaica’s deepest democratic fault line: voter disengagement. A government elected by fewer than four in ten citizens holds the reins of power, but not the broad consent that gives democracy its moral authority.
Jamaica does not publish reliable turnout data by age, income, or education; however, anecdotal evidence suggests that younger voters were the least likely to participate, a striking contradiction in a campaign dominated by social media energy. Understanding who
votes and why others stay home must be central to rebuilding trust in the democratic process.
Prime Minister Holness and the JLP have the parliamentary numbers to govern. Legitimacy in the years ahead will rest less on constitutional majorities and more on how convincingly they address daily struggles: the cost of living, crime, reform, and infrastructure.
For the PNP, the mandate is subtler, to show that 2025 is not a one-off rebound but the beginning of disciplined renewal.
There will also be regional eyes on how the JLP Administration treats matters beyond its shores, particularly those affecting the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME).
Ultimately, the mandate that matters is not written in Parliament’s seat counts but in the
confidence of the Jamaican people. History may record 2025 as Holness’s third straight win.
Jamaica must also remember it as the year democracy demanded renewal.
Sending Congratulations to the People of Jamaica and best wishes for strong growth, development, and empowerment.
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Haiti is the most populous CARICOM member
Jamaica 3 mill
Haiti 11mill
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