WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Meteorological Service of Antigua/Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Anguilla and Barbuda.
The Meteorological Service of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.
The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Sint Maarten.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
- Anguilla and Barbuda
- St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- Sint Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 51.2 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Erin this evening.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
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