A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.
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Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team, led by Mr. David Moore, visited St. John’s during January 19–30 to hold discussions for the 2026 Article IV consultation with the Antigua and Barbuda authorities. At the end of the visit, Mr. Moore issued the following statement.
Recent Developments
- Antigua and Barbuda’s economic expansion continued in 2025, supported by a pickup in construction, alongside easing inflationary pressures. The most recent data indicate real GDP growth of 2½ percent in 2024, reflecting a mix of strong tourist arrivals and slower construction activity. For 2025, staff estimates growth at 3 percent, reflecting instead a mix of rebounding construction activity but flat tourist arrivals. Inflation, which had averaged 6.2 percent in 2024, moderated to an estimated 1.2 percent in 2025, in part reflecting substantial one-off declines in transportation prices.
- The public debt burden has eased substantially in recent years, but significant arrears and financing needs are ongoing challenges. The debt-to-GDP ratio, which peaked around 100 percent during the pandemic shock in 2020, has since fallen to an estimated 68 percent in 2025—narrowing the gap with the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) benchmark of 60 percent by 2035. Nevertheless, substantial arrears to Paris Club and domestic creditors, and high gross financing needs, have persisted. The authorities are continuing the process of validating the extent of their arrears to domestic suppliers and are pursuing a liability management operation with a view to refinancing domestic debt, reducing arrears, and financing resilience-building projects.
- The fiscal position strengthened in 2024–25, reflecting both improved tax collections and one-off effects. In 2024, the fiscal primary balance improved to 4 percent of GDP, up 3½ percentage points from 2023, reflecting a combination of increases in several indirect taxes and one-off asset forfeiture receipts. In 2025, the estimated primary balance reached nearly 5 percent of GDP, underpinned by higher tax revenues, stronger inflows under the Citizenship by Investment Program (CIP), restraint in current spending, and a modest (albeit less than budgeted) increase in capital spending. Tax revenues reached just over 18 percent of GDP in 2025, an increase of nearly 1½ percentage points from 2024, albeit largely reflecting one-off collections of tax arrears (around 1 percent of GDP).
- The current account deficit widened in 2025. After narrowing sharply in 2024 to around 7½ percent of GDP, the current account deficit in 2025 is estimated to have reverted to around 11½ percent of GDP, due mainly to increased construction-related imports and flattening tourist arrivals. Foreign direct investment inflows continued to finance the current account deficit, supplemented by higher CIP-related capital transfers. The external position in 2025 is assessed as moderately weaker than implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.
- The overall financial system remains stable and liquid. Credit growth has moderated: bank lending to the private sector decelerated from 12½ percent in the year to end-2024 to just below 5 percent in the year to November 2025, while credit union lending growth moderated from 6 percent (over a year earlier) in 2024Q4 to 5¼ percent in 2025Q3. Banks’ nonperforming loan (NPL) ratios have remained below the 5 percent prudential threshold since end-2024, though credit union NPLs remain somewhat higher. The ECCU regional credit bureau has been launched in Antigua and Barbuda for banks and two credit unions, with plans to expand coverage to other credit unions.
Outlook
- Staff’s baseline is for Antigua and Barbuda’s economic expansion to continue at a stable pace. Staff projects real GDP growth in 2026 of 2.8 percent, converging in the medium term to the estimated potential growth rate of 2½ percent. This projection assumes a pickup in visitor arrivals, supported by Antigua and Barbuda’s hosting of events including the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in November 2026, and expanded room capacity and port facilities. Staff projects inflation to stabilize at around 2 percent by end-2026, converging to levels in ECCU peers and the United States. The current account deficit is expected to narrow modestly from 11½ percent of GDP in 2025 to 10¾ percent in 2026 and to continue gradually improving over the medium term. Staff’s baseline envisages a further gradual decline in the public debt-to-GDP ratio, consistent with meeting the regional debt target (60 percent of GDP before 2035), but with arrears and high financing needs yet to be fully addressed.
- Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside amid global headwinds, but upside risks are significant as well. External risks include prolonged global uncertainty, deepening geopolitical fragmentation, and commodity price volatility, which could potentially dampen financial inflows and growth prospects. CIP-related inflows are subject to downside risks following recent U.S. travel policy announcements. Additional downside risks stem from vulnerabilities related to extreme weather events and capacity constraints in the construction sector. There are also significant upside risks, including stronger tourism demand; greater payoffs from investments in improved air connectivity, development of new cruise facilities, and hosting of special events; and accelerated progress in implementing productivity-enhancing structural reforms.
Public Debt and Fiscal Policy
- A comprehensive strategy for addressing persistent arrears and elevated financing needs remains key to restoring debt sustainability. Establishing a clear and credible pathway to tackle these challenges would help create fiscal space and improve access to external financing. Elements should include: (i) completing the validation of potential domestic arrears; (ii) developing a comprehensive arrears clearance strategy covering all creditors, including Paris Club and domestic creditors; (iii) continuing to build fiscal buffers, consistent with the authorities’ medium-term fiscal framework, to alleviate pressures from still-high financing needs; and (iv) strengthening cash management and expenditure controls, to reduce risks of accumulating new arrears.
- The 2026 Budget envisages improved revenue performance and higher investment, underpinned by robust economic growth. The 2026 Budget Statement projects strong gains from the Antigua and Barbuda Sales Tax (ABST), property tax, and import duties, based on projected real GDP growth of 5 per The Budget also envisages further collection of tax arrears, additional efforts to strengthen tax compliance, and continued CIP inflows. On the spending side, the Budget projects capital spending to increase to around 3½ percent of GDP, up some 2 percentage points from the estimated 2025 outturn. Using staff’s baseline macroeconomic assumptions, implementation of the 2026 Budget is estimated to imply a primary surplus of 1.6 percent of GDP, within the target range under the fiscal resilience guidelines (1½–2 percent of GDP). However, this estimate does not take into account foregone revenue from the just-announced temporary reduction in the ABST rate from 17 to 7 percent, as the timing and duration of this measure have not yet been announced.
- Stronger fiscal buffers would place debt on a firmer downward trajectory, ease financing needs, and help the authorities reach their medium-term fiscal targets.
- Revenue mobilization remains a pressing need. Despite recent progress, staff assesses that the underlying fiscal position, excluding temporary factors, has yet to fully align with the authorities’ own objectives—a tax revenue-to-GDP ratio of 20 percent and a primary surplus of 1½–2 percent of GDP. Tax collections remain well below those of regional peers. In this context, the announced temporary reduction in the ABST rate will reduce revenue collection; promptly restoring the ABST rate is needed for progress towards the authorities’ revenue objective. Staff encourages continued efforts to broaden the tax base, address inefficiencies in ABST collections, accelerate implementation of HS 2022 customs and property tax reforms, and further reduce tax exemptions.
- Tax administration reforms should continue. Key priorities include rolling out a new IT system; introducing an e-filing and e-payment system and a single-window system at customs to enhance compliance and efficiency; and establishing a large taxpayer unit. Timely completion of IT upgrades will be critical to further enhancing revenue collection and operational efficiency.
- Preserving room for capital spending should be accompanied by restraint in current spending. With overall spending already low as a share of GDP, staff sees merit in growth-enhancing capital spending consistent with implementation capacity and fiscal sustainability. At the same time, current spending should be contained to preserve fiscal space, reduce financing needs, and enable rebuilding of fiscal buffers.
- The need to reform the social assistance framework remains pressing. Streamlining fragmented social programs—currently administered across five ministries—and establishing a centralized beneficiary database will be essential to improve targeting, reduce administrative duplication, and strengthen service delivery. Addressing the barriers to these reforms, including stepping up cooperation between relevant stakeholders, is warranted.
- The forthcoming actuarial review of the social security fund (SSF) will assess the long-term financial health of the social security system. Pending the findings of the review, a range of options for responding to future shortfalls should be kept under consideration to ensure long-term solvency of the SSF, mitigate risks, and retain flexibility for the SSF to adapt to evolving demographic and economic conditions.
- Stronger fiscal institutions and oversight would enhance accountability, transparency, and policy credibility, while helping to contain fiscal risks. The recent operationalization of the Fiscal Resilience Oversight Committee (FROC) and the new state-owned enterprises (SOEs) oversight function within the Ministry of Finance (MoF) are welcome steps. In addition, the authorities tabled the first FROC report in Parliament in December 2025. However, the MoF’s SOE oversight function remains understaffed, and capacity at the Supreme Audit Institution (SAI) also appears strained. To improve fiscal transparency, staff encourages the regular publication of FROC reports, timely reporting of audited fiscal accounts, and ensuring adequate resourcing of the SOE oversight function and the SAI. Staff also encourages regular disclosure of key SOE financial data once additional capacity is in place.
Financial Sector Policies
- Strengthening financial sector oversight and resilience depends on both regional and national efforts. At the regional level, the ECCB is strengthening prudential regulation and supervision, taking steps towards establishing a deposit insurance scheme, and planning to harmonize regulation for insurers and private pension funds. At the national level, a planned shift towards more risk-based supervision of credit unions deserves support. Efforts by the national regulator to strengthen provisioning and capital of credit unions should continue.
- Efforts under way to strengthen financial intermediation, while maintaining financial stability, can help foster inclusive growth. Businesses continue to identify limited access to finance as a key challenge, while banks point to a scarcity of bankable projects and hold a large share of assets abroad. In this context, the recent launch of the regional credit bureau for banks in Antigua and Barbuda—and the extension under way to include credit unions—is a welcome step towards reducing informational asymmetries between lenders and borrowers and broadening access to credit. Additionally, addressing government arrears to domestic suppliers could help improve firms’ financial positions and creditworthiness. Raising the awareness of the regional partial credit guarantee scheme could help increase the uptake of the scheme and unlock lending to underserved sectors. Staff also welcomes ongoing initiatives to improve financial literacy.
- Ensuring strong AML/CFT and CIP frameworks remains key to safeguarding financial integrity. The National Risk Assessment—launched in 2025 and expected to be completed in the coming months—is identifying key risks and will form the basis for a national action plan. Efforts are underway to further strengthen the AML/CFT framework in line with the 2025 updates to the FATF standards, in preparation for the next regional mutual assessment. To enhance governance of CIPs across the region, an agreement establishing an independent regulator for the industry has been enacted into law in Antigua and Barbuda and other ECCU countries with CIPs. Once operational, the new regulator is expected to enhance transparency and governance of the CIPs by setting and enforcing uniform regulatory standards and publishing annual reports on compliance.
Structural Policies
- Improving connectivity and competitiveness is crucial for Caribbean trade performance, economic resilience, and sustainable growth. Staff analysis identifies shipping and air connectivity as binding constraints on regional trade and tourism. To ease these constraints, building on recent and ongoing port and airport projects, priorities could include modernizing port and digital infrastructure and reducing red tape in customs procedures. Aligning customs regulations among regional partners could further boost competitiveness. Where there is a case for new infrastructure projects, careful cost-benefit analyses to account for fiscal and debt implications remain crucial. Over time, enhanced connectivity and competitiveness could enhance Antigua and Barbuda’s potential growth and resilience to external shocks.
- Further reforms to raise business-sector productivity should address constraints in trade regulations and financial access. Staff analysis suggests that the largest gains would come from addressing constraints in customs and trade regulations and access to finance. Implementing a single electronic window for trade facilitation would streamline processing, enhance transparency, and reduce administrative costs. These efforts should be complemented by continued initiatives to promote financial inclusion.
- Addressing persistent skills shortages calls for increased take-up of skills training aligned with employers’ needs. Skills shortages remain obstacles to firm productivity and economic growth. Analysis of the 2018 labor force survey finds a positive relationship between skills training and earnings. Stakeholders should continue to encourage both firms and workers to invest in skills training and foster increased awareness of domestic career prospects. Improving data—through the development of a skills-in-demand survey and more regular labor force surveys—would support better monitoring of skills gaps and inform evidence-based policies.
Data Provision
- Despite recent improvements in data collection, strengthening statistical capacity remains crucial to support evidence-based policymaking. Data gaps include the absence of GDP by expenditure, outdated CPI weights, and labor force data. The previously postponed Population and Housing Census is now being conducted. The ongoing transition to the National Bureau of Statistics is welcome and, if the Bureau is adequately resourced, is expected to strengthen statistical capacity and data integrity over the medium term.
The IMF staff team thanks the authorities and other counterparts for the productive collaboration and the candid and constructive policy dialogue.
| Table 1. Antigua and Barbuda: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators | |||||||||
| Prel. | Est. | Projections | |||||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | ||
| (Annual percentage change) | |||||||||
| National Income and Prices | |||||||||
| Real GDP | -18.9 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | |
| Nominal GDP | -18.2 | 13.5 | 15.9 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | |
| Consumer prices (end of period) | 2.8 | 1.2 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| Consumer prices (period average) | 1.1 | 1.6 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| (Percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Central Government | |||||||||
| Primary balance | -3.7 | -2.3 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | |
| Overall balance | -6.2 | -4.5 | -2.9 | -1.7 | 1.6 | 3.1 | -0.5 | -1.0 | |
| Total revenue and grants | 19.8 | 18.9 | 18.0 | 16.7 | 21.9 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.0 | |
| Total expenditure | 26.0 | 23.4 | 20.8 | 18.4 | 20.2 | 19.3 | 22.3 | 22.1 | |
| External Sector | |||||||||
| Current account balance | -15.6 | -17.6 | -15.1 | -12.9 | -7.5 | -11.6 | -10.8 | -10.3 | |
| Trade balance | -28.6 | -29.6 | -34.6 | -32.4 | -29.7 | -31.8 | -31.3 | -30.9 | |
| Nonfactor service balance | 17.3 | 19.5 | 29.0 | 28.7 | 31.3 | 27.9 | 27.7 | 28.0 | |
| Of which: Gross tourism receipts | 29.2 | 30.5 | 44.6 | 44.3 | 47.9 | 45.0 | 44.7 | 45.1 | |
| Overall balance | -6.5 | 3.5 | -0.1 | -2.4 | -0.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | |
| External public sector debt | 47.5 | 45.5 | 39.6 | 35.2 | 31.7 | 31.3 | 34.1 | 35.9 | |
| Savings-Investment Balance | -15.6 | -17.6 | -15.1 | -12.9 | -7.5 | -11.6 | -10.8 | -10.3 | |
| Savings | 22.4 | 28.4 | 25.2 | 23.8 | 25.9 | 24.4 | 25.5 | 25.4 | |
| Investment | 38.0 | 46.0 | 40.2 | 36.7 | 33.4 | 36.1 | 36.2 | 35.7 | |
| Memorandum Items | |||||||||
| Net imputed international reserves (US$ million) | 222 | 324 | 346 | 319 | 318 | 361 | 409 | 453 | |
| (Months of prospective imports) | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | |
| GDP at market prices (EC$ million) | 3,811 | 4,326 | 5,014 | 5,546 | 5,838 | 6,137 | 6,432 | 6,725 | |
| Public debt stock (EC$ million) 1/, 2/ | 3,829 | 4,021 | 4,134 | 4,134 | 4,043 | 4,190 | 4,271 | 4,368 | |
| (Percent of GDP) | 100.5 | 93.0 | 82.4 | 74.5 | 69.3 | 68.3 | 66.4 | 64.9 | |
| Sources: Country authorities, ECCB, UN Human Development Report, World Bank, and IMF staff estimates and projections. | |||||||||
| 1/ Includes stock of principal and interest arrears, unpaid vouchers, and suppliers’ credits. | |||||||||
| 2/ Includes central government guarantees of state enterprises’ and statutory bodies’ debt. | |||||||||
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