Antigua and Barbuda Faces Drought Concerns as Drier-Than-Normal Conditions Expected in October
Antigua and Barbuda’s Meteorological Service has warned of continued dry conditions across the country, with October rainfall projected to be below to near normal and a short-term drought warning in effect.
Forecasters say there is a 75% chance that rainfall will remain below or close to average this month, with total accumulation likely around 120 millimeters (4.72 inches). The outlook gives a 40% probability of below-normal rainfall, a 35% chance of near normal, and just a 25% chance of above-normal totals.
Temperatures are expected to lean warmer, particularly at night. The mean daily temperature for October is projected at 27.7°C (81.9°F), with daytime highs averaging 30.7°C (87.3°F) and nighttime lows near 24.9°C (76.8°F). Maximum temperatures are more likely to be below or near normal, while minimums are likely to be near to above normal.
Looking ahead, the October–December period carries a 70% chance of below to near-normal rainfall, while conditions from January to March 2026 are expected to improve, with rainfall shifting to near or above normal levels.
Drought monitoring shows that Antigua has experienced moderate to extreme dryness over the past three months, particularly in the northeast. The Meteorological Service anticipates short-term drought to persist through December, prompting a Drought Warning. Long-term drought, however, is not considered a concern at this time.
The outlook comes as a La Niña Watch remains in effect, with a 71% chance of La Niña developing between October and December. This climate shift could influence regional weather patterns, potentially intensifying drought conditions if rainfall deficits continue.
The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service, working with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, said it will continue monitoring conditions, particularly in Barbuda, where limited rainfall data makes it harder to confirm drought impacts.
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