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OPED: THE UWI FIVE ISLANDS CAMPUS OECS BUDGET WATCH 2025
“DEBT, DEFICITS, AND DISCIPLINE: WHO’S BALANCING THEIR BUDGETS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN?”
By Professor C. Justin Robinson
Pro Vice-Chancellor and Principal, UWI Five Islands Campus
Budgets are moral documents, economists say.
They show what governments can afford and what they care about.
In 2025, some Eastern Caribbean nations send a clear message: we will spend now and worry later. Others are buckling down, with hard choices and tighter belts.
The Fiscal Straight-A Students
Antigua and Barbuda and Grenada are at the top of the fiscal class.
Antigua recorded a primary surplus of 3.5% of GDP in 2024 and aims for another in 2025.
The overall budget balance for 2025 is a surplus of 1.3%, a rare feat in the region. Grenada stunned the area in 2024 with a jaw-dropping 11.3% primary surplus. In 2025, Hurricane Beryl pushed the government into a rare deficit year.
However, the budget still reflects a measured loosening: a primary deficit of 5.1% as they rebuild—and then back to surpluses from 2026.
Saint Lucia is playing it safe—modest deficits, steady primary surpluses, and full compliance with its Fiscal Responsibility Act.
In 2025, it projects a 0.5% primary surplus and keeps its deficit under 3%.
The Fiscal Tightrope Walkers
St. Kitts and Nevis had a rough 2024 with a 10–11% overall deficit, caused by collapsing CBI revenues.
However, the 2025 budget is a comeback attempt: the deficit is projected to shrink to just 1% of GDP, with hopes of restoring a primary surplus.
Dominica is in transition—still investing big but slowing down enough to hit a nearly balanced primary budget in 2025 (surplus of 0.1%).
The Fiscal Risk-Takers
St. Vincent and the Grenadines is borrowing big. Its 2025 budget deficit is expected to hit a staggering 21% of GDP—by far the region’s largest.
Post-hurricane reconstruction and the $600+ million Kingstown Port project are driving this spending spree. Debt is now pushing 95% of GDP.
The government says it is “transformational.” The opposition calls it “reckless.” Time—and growth—will tell who is right.
Debt-to-GDP: Who’s Closest to the 60% ECCU Target?
| Country | Debt-to-GDP (2025 projected) |
|---|---|
| St. Kitts & Nevis | 51.8% ✅ |
| Antigua & Barbuda | ~62% 🔜 |
| Grenada | 71.4% 📉 |
| Saint Lucia | ~74% |
| St. Vincent & Gren. | ~95% 📈 |
| Dominica | ~100% 📈 |
Takeaway: Fiscal discipline is making a comeback in Antigua, Grenada, and Saint Lucia. Others are betting that massive public investment will pay off—eventually. But in the meantime, debt levels are diverging sharply, raising big questions for 2026.
Prof. C. Justin Robinson, a Vincentian and UWI graduate, holds a BSc in Management Studies, MSc in Finance and Econometrics, and PhD in Finance. With over 20 years at UWI, he has served in various leadership roles, including Dean and Pro Vice Chancellor, Board for Undergraduate Studies. A Professor of Corporate Finance with extensive research publications, he is actively involved in regional financial institutions and is currently the Principal of The UWI Five Islands Campus in Antigua and Barbuda.
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Never ever forget my fellow Antiguans to witness with your own eyes, pockets, wages and bank accounts – if you can open one.
The ABLP politicians and their cohorts chat a lot of gibberish.
But your eyes, the high cost of living here and low wages aren’t deceiving you.
ALL DEM DO IS HOODWINK WE …
WONDERFUL NEWS FOR ANTIGUA
Big up the Hon. GASTON BROWNE AND HIS CABINET
So where all this surplus going? Infrastructure still lacking in some areas.
Top of the class yet people still struggling to buy groceries — how that work?
I hope this isn’t just creative accounting. Let’s see transparency and how this benefits the average citizen.
Mi tired hear about ‘fiscal responsibility’ when salaries late and pensions behind.
Better to be top fiscally than bottom in services. But ideally, we need both.
Political talk is cheap, but ACTION by them is far far better than empty pockets folks.
ANTIGUANS HAVE EYES …
@Brix.
Tell these people how it works.
At the end of the day, a budget is only a contract with the citizens and how their own money(taxes) are spent.
This government has a terrible record on how the peoples money are spent and how it is invested.
The Alpha Nero and the lait2020 are just two of such terrible investments.
Ask Gatson Browne how he’s going to get back the millions from those terrible decisions. And those are just two.. the port is another one such investment that’s going straight to the Chinese. Are Antiguan’s benefiting from these hefty investments.
Kudos to ANU, GND and all the Caribbean countries who are making it happen especially in these trying times.
We must stop competing with each other and band together for survival. We are all neighbors and brothers and sisters!