{"id":273896,"date":"2026-04-23T07:36:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T11:36:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=273896"},"modified":"2026-04-23T07:36:29","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T11:36:29","slug":"analyst-says-three-marginal-seats-likely-to-decide-general-election-outcome","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/analyst-says-three-marginal-seats-likely-to-decide-general-election-outcome\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst Says Three Marginal Seats Likely to Decide General Election Outcome"},"content":{"rendered":"
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With general elections a week away, political analyst Arvel Grant says the outcome will likely be decided in three closely contested constituencies: City East, St. George and St. Mary\u2019s North.<\/p>

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\u201cCity East, St. George and St. Mary\u2019s North were all decided by less than three percent,\u201d Grant said, noting that the narrow margins make the races highly competitive. \u201cThat means neither the ABLP nor the UPP can be realistically confident of winning any of them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grant said the opposition United Progressive Party must hold the six seats it secured in 2023, win City East and St. Mary\u2019s North, and rely on its Barbuda People\u2019s Movement partner to retain its seat in order to form government. \u201cThat combination would give the UPP the numbers needed to form the government,\u201d he said.<\/p>

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For the ruling Antigua and Barbuda Labour Party, Grant said the path is more straightforward but still uncertain. The party must retain its core eight seats and secure at least one of the three marginal constituencies. \u201cIf Labour retains its base and picks up just one of those marginal seats, it crosses the line,\u201d he added.<\/p>

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Grant also identified Rural East, Rural North and St. Paul\u2019s as additional areas to watch, citing their history of shifting voter support. \u201cThese are not fixed seats \u2014 they are responsive to national mood and local dynamics,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He pointed to voter registration and turnout as key factors that could influence the result. \u201cHigh levels of re-registration can sometimes favour the opposition, while low turnout can lead to unpredictable results,\u201d Grant said, urging both parties to mobilise their supporters.<\/p>

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\u201cUltimately, the path to government will run through the three marginal seats,\u201d he said. \u201cWhatever happens, the election will likely be determined by City East, St. George or St. Mary\u2019s North.\u201d<\/p>\n

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With general elections a week away, political analyst Arvel Grant says the outcome will likely be decided in three closely contested constituencies: City East, St. George and St. Mary\u2019s North. \u201cCity East, St. George and St. Mary\u2019s North were all decided by less than three percent,\u201d Grant said, noting that the narrow margins make the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":159386,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-273896","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured"],"yoast_head":"\nAnalyst Says Three Marginal Seats Likely to Decide General Election Outcome - Antigua News Room<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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