{"id":238089,"date":"2025-05-23T04:42:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-23T08:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=238089"},"modified":"2025-05-22T16:45:01","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T20:45:01","slug":"noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season\/","title":{"rendered":"NOAA predicts above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season"},"content":{"rendered":"
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NOAA\u2019s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.<\/p>

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The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,\u201d said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. \u201cWith these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.\u201d <\/p>

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\u201cAs we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,\u201d said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. \u201cNOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.\u201d <\/p>

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A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted, according to NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. (See also news release text for data found within above graphic.) (Image credit: NOAA NWS)Download Image<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Factors influencing NOAA\u2019s predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The season is expected to be above normal \u2013 due to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions<\/a>, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption. <\/p>

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This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we\u2019ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,\u201d said NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. \u201cThis outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”<\/p>

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Improved hurricane analysis and forecasts in store for 2025<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

NOAA will improve its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season. These include:<\/p>

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