{"id":215000,"date":"2024-10-29T15:31:29","date_gmt":"2024-10-29T19:31:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=215000"},"modified":"2024-10-29T15:34:43","modified_gmt":"2024-10-29T19:34:43","slug":"media-advisory-final-surge-of-tropical-storms-expected-in-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/media-advisory-final-surge-of-tropical-storms-expected-in-november\/","title":{"rendered":"Final Surge of Tropical Storms Expected in November"},"content":{"rendered":"
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AccuWeather expert meteorologists say high ocean temperatures and the forecast for conducive atmospheric conditions\u00a0could allow one to three named tropical storms to form<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0in the Atlantic basin during the month of November.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>

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\u201cWe\u2019ve been saying since March that the end of this year\u2019s hurricane season could be quite active,\u201d said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. \u201cWe\u2019re expecting a late-season surge in the month of November with another one to three named storms possible in the Atlantic basin.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DaSilva says there is also the potential of tropical trouble brewing in the early days of December, outside of the official Atlantic hurricane season, which ends on Nov. 30.  <\/p>

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\u201cWe may even see a tropical storm in December this year. It doesn\u2019t happen very often, but the very warm sea surface temperatures could make it possible this year,\u201d DaSilva said.  <\/p>

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AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there is virtually no risk of direct impacts in November to the western Gulf of Mexico along the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coastline. Due to weather patterns, wind shear and climatology, AccuWeather expert meteorologists say any late-season tropical impacts to the United States are more likely to affect Florida and the East Coast.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe entire state of Florida up into the Carolinas could be at risk of experiencing another tropical impact this season. This region is already vulnerable after dealing with multiple landfalls earlier this year,\u201d DaSilva warned. \u201cThe western and central Gulf of Mexico coastline likely will not see any direct impacts for the rest of this hurricane season.\u201d <\/p>

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High Risk for Development This Week <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there is a high risk for potential tropical development starting Friday in the southern Caribbean.  <\/p>

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\u201cWe\u2019re becoming more confident that the next named storm in the Atlantic basin could form within the next week,\u201d said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. \u201cThere is a large area of high-pressure building across the northeast that has sent a stalled front southward. That sets off a chain reaction that begins with showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>

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DaSilva says families, businesses, emergency officials and government leaders in the Caribbean islands should be on alert for the potential of tropical impacts in early November.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re already starting to see the early signs of development with showers and thunderstorms developing in the southern Caribbean. As the area of high pressure builds to the north, it\u2019s going to create a very favorable environment for intensification. This could lead to a tropical storm or even a hurricane in the first few days of November. We expect very little wind shear, and the water temperatures are exceptionally warm for this time of year.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there are two likely scenarios for the track, if a storm develops within the next week.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cClimatology favors a more north or northeast track for storms that develop in this region in November. If a storm develops, it could move across Cuba or Hispaniola and move out into the open Atlantic, but we do have to watch for the possibility of eventual impacts to Florida. The area of high pressure could potentially block a storm from heading out to sea and essentially force the storm to turn west toward Florida,\u201d explained DaSilva. \u201cThe second scenario is a western track. If the area of high pressure is stronger initially, it might guide the storm due west into the Yucatan Peninsula. If the area of high pressure starts to weaken, it could allow the storm to turn to the north. There are a lot of moving pieces to this puzzle. If a storm develops, the eventual path hinges on how strong the area of high pressure will be to the north.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next three names for any tropical storms that develop in the Atlantic basin this season would be Patty, Rafael and Sara. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Connection to Extended Hurricane Season <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Climate Expert Brett Anderson says the trend of rising ocean temperatures has contributed to an increased risk of potential tropical development well through November and even into December.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSea surface temperatures and the ocean heat content, which measures the amount of available heat from the ocean surface down to 2,000 meters, currently remains at almost record-high levels in the Caribbean. The western and southern Caribbean is typically the most likely area for tropical development during the month of November,\u201d said Anderson. \u201cMonitoring long-term ocean heat content trends is one of the many ways to measure the rate of global warming and climate change. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that this warming trend is going to stop or reverse anytime soon.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anderson says the trend of storms forming outside of the official Atlantic hurricane season from June through November is expected to continue in the decades to come.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe presence of this widespread and record-high ocean heat content this year means\u202fbasins such as the western Caribbean will likely remain abnormally warm well into next year and possibly well beyond that,\u201d Anderson explained. \u201cIn addition to providing extra heat energy to fuel rapid intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes, those warm waters may also\u202flengthen\u202fthe hurricane season beyond what has been typically the norm over the past century. An earlier start and a later end to the hurricane season may very well be what our near future holds.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anderson says water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are starting to drop following a summer with exceptionally warm waters that shattered records.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have trended back toward readings we historically see this time of year, after spiking with record high temperatures earlier this season. Part of the reason water temperatures have dropped is due to the upwelling of cooler water toward the surface following recent storms and hurricanes passing over these waters,” said Anderson. “I expect the surface water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Atlantic coast to be generally above the historical average through the winter season. Warmer ocean waters can enhance storms, leading to stronger coastal storms and more severe thunderstorms.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anderson says ongoing research is underway to determine how warmer water temperatures will contribute to the frequency and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in the future.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMany scientific studies have predicted that the number of hurricanes would not necessarily increase with global warming, but that the number of hurricanes developing to major or extreme intensity would likely increase. So far, those predictions seem to be mostly on target,\u201d Anderson explained. \u201cEven though water temperatures in the Atlantic basin may be abnormally warm, it does not mean that there will be an increase in the number of hurricanes. Wind shear still plays a critical role in whether or not a disturbance can form into a storm or hurricane, especially during the early and late part of the hurricane season.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Costly and Deadly Hurricane Season  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AccuWeather expert meteorologists accurately predicted an \u2018explosive\u2019 hurricane season when the AccuWeather 2024 U.S. Hurricane Season Forecast was first issued in March, ahead of other weather sources.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since March, AccuWeather has been forecasting four to six direct impacts to the United States.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, Helene and Milton have made landfall in the U.S. so far this season, along with an unnamed storm in North Carolina.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 300 deaths in the U.S. have been linked to impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes so far this year.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

AccuWeather experts estimate that the total damage and economic loss from tropical storm and hurricane impacts in the United States so far this year are near $500 billion.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n