{"id":21476,"date":"2018-11-04T11:28:40","date_gmt":"2018-11-04T15:28:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=21476"},"modified":"2018-11-04T11:28:41","modified_gmt":"2018-11-04T15:28:41","slug":"commentary-the-ccj-trust-fund-and-capital-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-the-ccj-trust-fund-and-capital-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"COMMENTARY: The CCJ Trust Fund and Capital Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By Dr. Terrance K Martin<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Author Profile<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDr. Martin was born in\nSt. Kitts and Nevis is an assistant professor of finance at Utah Valley\nUniversity, a published author, and awarding winning researcher. His research\nhard been cited and featured in periodicals, newspaper, magazines, and journals\nthrough the world. He is also the founder and principal of Tranquility\nFinancial Planning, LLC a registered investment advisory firm.\u201d<\/p>

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Financial Markets Outlook<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Volatility in the US and world stock markets had\nbeen absent for most of the last decade but has been more apparent throughout\nmuch of 2018. I expect to see this volatility to continue for the remainder of\nthe year as the markets have become very sensitive to short-term data\ndevelopments. The high volatility is a reminder that the risk in the market is\nreal and a blend of stocks and bonds as part of a diversified portfolio could\nhelp one weather the up and down swings of the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, despite the downturn in global stock market\nand the pickup in volatility, the outlook remains generally favorable. However,\nslower growth in global<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Economies is likely as interest rates continue\nto rise in the United States and as other central banks move to reduce\nquantitative easing amidst trade war concerns among US, Europe, and China\ngrows. Although downturns are always disconcerting, occasional periods of\nturbulence are to be expected. That said, equities are still the best choice\nfor investors seeking long-term capital growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Understanding the CCJ\nTrust Fund, and its broad asset allocation:<\/strong><\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Before I draw parallels from current and future economic\nexpectations to the CCJ Trust Fund, I think it is important to define and\nhighlight in as simplest terms what is the trust fund and how it works. The CCJ\nTrust Fund in essence can be describe as a living irrevocable trust. The trust\ntook this form in order to mitigate the perception of political interference by\ngovernments within its jurisdiction. Because it is irrevocable, governments cannot\nask for their funding back or demand favor for contributions. Once financial assets\nare placed in the trust, they are no longer that of funding governments or\nentities. The financial assets are now under the care of the CCJ Trust Fund\u2019s\nboard, chaired by Dr. Linton Lewis. The board acts as a fiduciary and disperses\nfunds for court operations. In layman\u2019s terms, the CCJ Trust Fund and it\u2019s\nboard of trustees can be viewed as the middleman between governments funding of\nthe court and its operation.<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Trust Fund\u2019s Asset\nallocation, the Market, and The Fund Sustainability<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CCJ Trust Fund was set up to exist in\nperpetuity (to last forever) in order to accomplish this goal, the board and\nits asset managers are to keep abreast of what is happening in global financial\nand capital markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, the CCJ Trust Fund isn\u2019t insulated from\ncurrent or future market movements. However, based on the asset allocation (how\nthe financial assets are invested) of the trust fund\u2019s investable assets, it\nappears that the asset managers and their money managers have taken a tactical\napproach to trust fund\u2019s investable assets. Tactical asset allocation is a\nstrategy that allows asset managers to garner additional return on investments\nby taking advantage of certain situations in the marketplace, which offsets\nsome of the downside risk during volatile markets. If my conjecture is correct,\nit would explain the laudable performance of the fund during the great\nrecession of 3rd<\/sup> quarter 2008 – 1st quarter 2009\u2019s great recession. During\nthe great recession, the fund lost 20%. So why is such a substantial loss\nlaudable, well It\u2019s simple, everyone else lost much more and in many cares\nalmost twice as much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So as the market remains volatile and growth slows\nas it has been, I am confident (though cautiously) that the asset managers will\nbe able to minimize the loss of value of the trust Fund investments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A word on Performance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The initial funding of the CCJ Trust Fund was approximately\n$100 million. Now to date, the fund has around $88 million even after funding\noperations for 13 years and weathering the worst recession since the Great\nDepression. The calculated return on investments of the trust fund\u2019s assets\nsince inception is about 5.52%. Although this a good return, it can better. Now\nin order achieve its mandate of perpetuity financing of the CCJ\u2019s operation and\nassuming no additional funding from governments, we need an average return\nconsidering time value of money of around 8-10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trust Fund Longevity<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scenario 1: Nothing Changes (not adjusted for\ninflation).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This analysis assumes an account balance of $88\nmillion and the maintenance of spending averaged out at (90 million Divided by\n13 years) $6,924,000 per year and the end of the year and no change in fund\nperformance and expenses, I estimate the funds\u2019 assets to deplete in about 22.5\nyears. This result also considers distribution being made at the end of a\nfiscal year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scenario 2: Change in asset allocation, cost\nremains fixed, 3.5 increase in ROI (not inflation adjusted).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This analysis assumes an account balance of $88\nmillion and the maintenance of spending averaged out at (90 million Divided by\n13 years) $6,924,000 per year and the end of the year. However, I assume a\nreturn of 9%, which is achievable with a portfolio reallocation, I estimate the\nTrust Fund\u2019s investable assets may not deplete and the perpetuity mandate will\nbe achieved. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although scenario two is likely, just a slight\nincrease in operational cost by 5% can put the goal of perpetuity financing in\njeopardy. Also, we have to be very mindful of inflation, but this can be offset\nwith investment products such as TIPS<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, as you consider your support of\nthe CCJ rest assured that the courts financing even in the face of rising cost\nof operations (pensions, salaries adjustments, capacity changes in court\nstructure) is on good footing. Is it perfect? No, but nothing is at least\nnothing I can think of right now. Although, I do think changes are needed the\ntrust fund\u2019s management; I do not think that the question of the Trust Fund\u2019s\nviability should give any voter pause in his or her support of the court. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Dr. Terrance K Martin Author Profile \u201cDr. Martin was born in St. Kitts and Nevis is an assistant professor of finance at Utah Valley University, a published author, and awarding winning researcher. His research hard been cited and featured in periodicals, newspaper, magazines, and journals through the world. He is also the founder and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":16981,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[55],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-letters-to-the-editor"],"yoast_head":"\nCOMMENTARY: The CCJ Trust Fund and Capital Markets - Antigua News Room<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-the-ccj-trust-fund-and-capital-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"COMMENTARY: The CCJ Trust Fund and Capital Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Dr. Terrance K Martin Author Profile \u201cDr. Martin was born in St. Kitts and Nevis is an assistant professor of finance at Utah Valley University, a published author, and awarding winning researcher. 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