{"id":195082,"date":"2024-02-06T15:03:42","date_gmt":"2024-02-06T19:03:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=195082"},"modified":"2024-02-06T15:03:42","modified_gmt":"2024-02-06T19:03:42","slug":"grenadas-economic-performance-after-50-years-of-independence-an-urgent-need-to-spice-up-and-spread-economic-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/grenadas-economic-performance-after-50-years-of-independence-an-urgent-need-to-spice-up-and-spread-economic-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Grenada\u2019s Economic Performance After 50 Years of Independence!\u00a0 An Urgent Need to Spice Up and Spread Economic Growth?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Grenada\u2019s Economic Performance After 50 Years of Independence!\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>

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An Urgent Need to Spice Up and Spread Economic Growth?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Introduction<\/strong><\/p>

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On behalf of The UWI and the UWI Five Islands campus let me take this opportunity to wish the people of Grenada, Carriacou and Petit Martinique (Grenada) best wishes on the occasion of their 50th<\/sup> anniversary of independence.\u00a0 Grenada is my favourite Caribbean island and some of my favourite humans live there.\u00a0 I am taking the opportunity of the 50th<\/sup> anniversary of independence to provide a brief analysis of the economic performance of Grenada since independence.\u00a0 In the short space provided by a newspaper article I will focus on two economic variables, Gross Domestic Product per Capita and Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product.\u00a0 I am able to access an independent, credible and continuous series of data from the World Bank for the period 1978 to 2023 for these variables and the analysis will be based on this time period which excludes the first four years of independence. Of course, economic growth, national and social development is a complicated issue and many other indicators and variables will matter for a more comprehensive analysis.<\/p>

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Income & Wealth Since Independence<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total market value of all the goods and services a country produces in a period of time. It is meant to reflect the market value of goods and services produced in a country during a period of time and by extension the total amount of income earned in the country during that period of time.\u00a0 When GDP is divided by the population we get GDP Per Capita which is the average income per person in Grenada for a period of time.\u00a0 Since 1978 Grenada has seen a massive explosion in GDP Per Capita from US $912 in 1978 to $9,689 in 2023 as shown in table 1.\u00a0 The figures imply that whereas in 1978 Grenadians had an average income of $204 EC per month or $2,448 EC a year, that has expanded to$2,155 per month or $25,860 EC per year by 2023, which represents a tremendous improvement in material living standards. \u00a0GDP Per capital is an average across the entire population and of course in reality many people in Grenada earn more than this and many earn less, but it gives us an average picture and we can track that average over time.\u00a0 We do not have any data on income distribution in Grenada which is extremely important in tracking economic progress because while average income can grow most of that growth can be within certain groups leaving a lot of the population behind.\u00a0 An analysis of income distribution in Grenada sounds like a perfect research project for some Grenadian graduate students to undertake at the UWI Five Islands campus.<\/p>

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An analysis of the trends in GDP Per Capita in Grenada shows a massive surge in the immediate post-independence period and GDP per capita more than doubled during the 1978 to 1987 decade.\u00a0 However, it is clear that after this period the growth in GDP Per capita has been quite modest and especially weak since 2008.\u00a0 Even though the growth rate would have been affected by the mathematical fact that GDP would then be growing from a larger base, the 33% increase in the decade 2008 to 2017 is most anemic compared to the 113% growth in the decade 1978 to 1987 (see table 2). In addition to the slowing growth, Grenada\u2019s improvement in GDP Per Capita since independence lags behind a number of its Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) counterparts as shown in table 1. To further delve into the factors behind the trends in GDP Per capita we turn our focus to the growth in GDP itself.<\/p>\n

A country\u2019s GDP Per Capita as mentioned earlier is its GDP divided by its population.\u00a0 Grenada\u2019s population has been relatively stable over the years since independence therefore the trends in Per Capita GDP are largely driven by the growth in GDP, therefore we now shift to focus on the growth in Real GDP.\u00a0 Real GDP is where GDP is adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.\u00a0 As seen in table 3 economic growth in Grenada averaged 3.06% per year over the 1978 to 2023, which is the second lowest among the major economies in the ECCU. Over the 46 year period the economy grew by a combined 140%, again the second lowest among the major economies in the ECCU. The 1978 to 1987 and 1998 to 2007 stand out as two periods of strong and sustained growth in Grenada since independence and account for 67.2% of the growth achieved between 1978 and 2023 over the last 50 years (see table 3).<\/p>

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Over the 1978 to 2023 time period Grenada experienced 10 recessions (years of negative GDP growth) which was the second largest number of recessions among the major economies in the ECCU.\u00a0 Economic recessions in Grenada have tended to be associated with hurricanes or external shocks such as the Gulf War (1991), September 11 terrorist attacks (2001), Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis (2008\/2009) and the Covid 19 pandemic (2020) (please see table 5 for details).\u00a0 However, with the exception of the recession following the 2008 global financial crisis and the Covid 19 pandemic, recessions in Grenada have tended to be short and mild.<\/p>

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The major challenge for Grenada appears to be the relatively modest levels of growth achieved in non-recession years and the vulnerability to external shocks which then reverse the moderate gains made in the non-recession years.\u00a0 The factors behind Grenada\u2019s relatively weak economic growth in non-recession years (compared to other major ECCU economies) and weak growth since 2008 despite its many assets, need to be researched and form the basis for future policy initiatives (again this seems like a perfect project for some bright graduate students from Grenada to undertake at the UWI Five Islands campus). The evidence may also suggest an urgent need to find new avenues to \u201cspice up\u201d GDP Per Capita as the current model appears to have stalled, unable to create significant new wealth and facilitate catching up with other major ECCU economies.<\/p>\n

Policy Challenges Next Fifty Years<\/strong><\/p>\n

Firstly, Grenada needs to invest in building up policy buffers especially in the form of a Debt to GDP Ratio of 60% to minimize the negative effects of the inevitable external shocks.\u00a0 Secondly, policy makers need to focus on improving the ease of doing business, the efficiency of public services, improving physical and human capital and removing obstacles in the way of the entrepreneurs and investors who can identify and execute the new growth opportunities needed to \u201cspice up\u201d the rate of economic growth and to build up reserves for the inevitable bad years from hurricanes and\/or external shocks. Thirdly, in pursuing new growth opportunities policymakers should prioritize inclusive growth opportunities so that new wealth is generated that is spread across a broad cross section of the society.<\/p>\n

Prof. C. Justin Robinson (Professor of Finance and Principal, UWI Five Islands Campus, Antigua & Barbuda)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Table 1. Gross Domestic Product Per Capital 1978 \u2013 2023 (US $)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n1978<\/strong><\/td>\n2023<\/strong><\/td>\n% Change<\/strong><\/td>\n$ Change<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Antigua and Barbuda<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,366<\/td>\n$ 19,919<\/td>\n1358%<\/td>\n$ 18,553<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dominica<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 788<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8,351<\/td>\n959%<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7,562<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Grenada<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 921<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9,689<\/td>\n951%<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8,767<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
St. Kitts and Nevis<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,137<\/td>\n$ 20,262<\/td>\n1682%<\/td>\n$ 19,124<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
St. Lucia<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,400<\/td>\n$ 13,030<\/td>\n830%<\/td>\n$ 11,630<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
St. Vincent and the Grenadines<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 572<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9,125<\/td>\n1493%<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 8,552<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Source:\u00a0 World Development Indicators<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Table 2: Grenada\u2019s Growth In Per Capita Income Across Decades<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Time Period<\/strong><\/td>\nCumulative Real GDP Growth<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978 to 1987<\/td>\n113%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988 to 1997<\/td>\n58%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998 to 2007<\/td>\n63%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2008 to 2017<\/td>\n33%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2018 to 2023<\/td>\n10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Table 3.\u00a0 Annual Growth Rate In Real GDP ECCU (%)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nAnt & B<\/strong><\/td>\nDom<\/strong><\/td>\nGre<\/strong><\/td>\nSKN<\/strong><\/td>\nSLU<\/strong><\/td>\nSVG<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Annual Average<\/strong><\/td>\n3.64<\/td>\n2.31<\/td>\n3.06<\/td>\n3.79<\/td>\n3.33<\/td>\n3.19<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Max Annual<\/strong><\/td>\n12.71<\/td>\n13.38<\/td>\n13.28<\/td>\n11.18<\/td>\n11.18<\/td>\n14.07<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Min Annual<\/strong><\/td>\n-17.50<\/td>\n-18.36<\/td>\n-13.76<\/td>\n-14.53<\/td>\n-24.37<\/td>\n-4.47<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cumulative (1978 to 2023)<\/strong><\/td>\n167.63<\/td>\n106.34<\/td>\n140.73<\/td>\n174.20<\/td>\n153.01<\/td>\n146.53<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# of Recessions<\/strong><\/td>\n9<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GDP Losses From Recessions<\/strong><\/td>\n-48.87<\/td>\n-50.85<\/td>\n-32.05<\/td>\n-25.60<\/td>\n-36.69<\/td>\n-11.44<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Table 4. <\/strong>Grenada Cumulative Real GDP Growth by Decade<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
1978 to 1987<\/td>\n45.54<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988 to 1997<\/td>\n22.60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998 to 2007<\/td>\n49.17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2008 to 2017<\/td>\n17.75<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2018 to 2023<\/td>\n5.67<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Table 5. Annual Growth Rate in Real GDP<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/td>\nReal GDP Growth<\/td>\nYear<\/td>\nReal GDP Growth<\/td>\nYear<\/td>\nReal GDP Growth<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978<\/td>\n5.34<\/td>\n1993<\/td>\n-1.96<\/td>\n2008<\/td>\n0.95<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979<\/td>\n5.60<\/td>\n1994<\/td>\n1.69<\/td>\n2009<\/td>\n-6.61<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980<\/td>\n-0.53<\/td>\n1995<\/td>\n2.13<\/td>\n2010<\/td>\n-0.51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981<\/td>\n1.53<\/td>\n1996<\/td>\n4.44<\/td>\n2011<\/td>\n0.76<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982<\/td>\n4.12<\/td>\n1997<\/td>\n5.02<\/td>\n2012<\/td>\n-1.15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1983<\/td>\n3.63<\/td>\n1998<\/td>\n11.75<\/td>\n2013<\/td>\n2.35<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984<\/td>\n3.57<\/td>\n1999<\/td>\n6.90<\/td>\n2014<\/td>\n7.34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1985<\/td>\n5.98<\/td>\n2000<\/td>\n4.89<\/td>\n2015<\/td>\n6.45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1986<\/td>\n7.19<\/td>\n2001<\/td>\n-2.02<\/td>\n2016<\/td>\n3.74<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1987<\/td>\n9.10<\/td>\n2002<\/td>\n3.44<\/td>\n2017<\/td>\n4.44<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988<\/td>\n2.97<\/td>\n2003<\/td>\n9.46<\/td>\n2018<\/td>\n4.36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1989<\/td>\n3.77<\/td>\n2004<\/td>\n-0.65<\/td>\n2019<\/td>\n0.68<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1990<\/td>\n4.01<\/td>\n2005<\/td>\n13.28<\/td>\n2020<\/td>\n-13.76<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991<\/td>\n1.39<\/td>\n2006<\/td>\n-4.00<\/td>\n2021<\/td>\n4.69<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992<\/td>\n-0.85<\/td>\n2007<\/td>\n6.12<\/td>\n2022<\/td>\n5.80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n2023<\/td>\n3.90<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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Grenada\u2019s Economic Performance After 50 Years of Independence!\u00a0 An Urgent Need to Spice Up and Spread Economic Growth? Introduction On behalf of The UWI and the UWI Five Islands campus let me take this opportunity to wish the people of Grenada, Carriacou and Petit Martinique (Grenada) best wishes on the occasion of their 50th anniversary […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":195083,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-195082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-regional"],"yoast_head":"\nGrenada\u2019s Economic Performance After 50 Years of Independence!\u00a0 An Urgent Need to Spice Up and Spread Economic Growth? - Antigua News Room<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/grenadas-economic-performance-after-50-years-of-independence-an-urgent-need-to-spice-up-and-spread-economic-growth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Grenada\u2019s Economic Performance After 50 Years of Independence!\u00a0 An Urgent Need to Spice Up and Spread Economic Growth?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Grenada\u2019s Economic Performance After 50 Years of Independence!\u00a0 An Urgent Need to Spice Up and Spread Economic Growth? 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