{"id":188909,"date":"2023-10-24T08:59:38","date_gmt":"2023-10-24T12:59:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=188909"},"modified":"2023-10-24T08:59:38","modified_gmt":"2023-10-24T12:59:38","slug":"commentary-if-simon-wins-an-upp-star-is-born-if-george-gets-in-alps-2028-chances-are-strong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-if-simon-wins-an-upp-star-is-born-if-george-gets-in-alps-2028-chances-are-strong\/","title":{"rendered":"COMMENTARY: If Simon wins, an UPP star is born. If George gets in, ALP’s 2028 chances are strong"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bi-elections,\u00a0 St. Mary’s South, Antigua-Barbuda, October 24th 2023 If Simon Wins, An UPP Star is Born –\u00a0 If George Gets in, ALP’s 2028 Chances Are Strong.<\/p>

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A version of\u00a0 this piece was first published on July 30th 2023 Not authorized for publication in Antigua-Barbuda before close of polls So, Antigua-Barbuda missed an election catastrophe, by a close call with the latest hurricane in the 2023 season. A word to the wise is sufficient.<\/p>\n

This bi-election is being held because, on January 18th 2023, Kelvin Simon (UPP) defeated Samantha Marshall (ABLP) by 199 votes (862 VS1,061).<\/p>

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Ms. Marshall shocked the UPP by\u00a0 capturing the constituency for the Labour Party, in the 2 previous general elections,\u00a0 by closer to\u00a0 30 votes.<\/p>

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It is safe to count this constituency as leaning more UPP than Labor…<\/p>\n

During the 2023\u00a0 campaign, Labor vowed to challenge a Simon-victory, on the
\nbasis that his nomination might not be legal.<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n

However, Mr.\u00a0 Simon rode a massive swing away from Labor, to defeat Ms.
\nMarshall, by a convincing 199 margin. Almost 10% of votes…<\/p>\n

As Labour\u00a0 pressed\u00a0 its challenge, Mr. Simon\u00a0 exhibited a\u00a0 unique brand of shrewd political instinct. The UPP candidate\u00a0 determined,\u00a0 that he would rather his fate decided\u00a0 by the voters and not by a judge in the High court.<\/p>

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So he\u00a0 resigned his seat (apparently)\u00a0 to\u00a0 trigger\u00a0 a bi-election in the
\nmidst of the annual economic low-tide, which occurs outside the tourism
\nseason…<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n

The sustained and\u00a0 public confusion,\u00a0 which Simon’s action had on Speaker
\nand government, suggested that the young politician, may have\u00a0 \u00a0left the
\n“gates” with a stunning advantage.<\/p>\n

An obvious stroke of political genius (if he goes on to win) or a gambler’s
\nnightmare, if he looses…<\/p>\n

Interestingly, Ms. Marshall started a\u00a0 high-profiled campaign to take back
\nthe seat, then resigned rather suddenly.<\/p>\n

So, Mr George (a body-builder and Economist) is the new Labor candidate for
\nSt. Marys South.<\/p>\n

On the face of it, the UPP can be excused for thinking that Mr. Simon holds
\nan unbeatable hand, given his 199 vote margin in defeating Ms.\u00a0 Marshall.
\nBut labourites eyeing a victory for Mr George,\u00a0 will be mindful\u00a0 that “the
\n“power of incumbency” can make the difference in bi-elections.<\/p>\n

In such contests, political parties are focused on\u00a0 single constituencies.
\nGiving the incumbent unprecedented advantages, because of the governing
\nparty’s access to logistics, services,\u00a0 material and money…<\/p>\n

Of course, the unbridled\u00a0 concentration of state resources, on single
\nconstituencies, operating under bi-election conditions, could galvanize
\nvoter back-lash from opposition and independent electors.<\/p>\n

So prudent incumbents are\u00a0 \u00a0cautious in the\u00a0 exercise\u00a0 of such options…
\nA win for Simon, gives the UPP\u00a0 the luxury\u00a0 of keeping 6 while\u00a0 focusing on
\nwinning a mere\u00a0 2 seats (perhaps City East and St Mary’s North) to form the
\ngovernment with Barbuda’s BPM, at the next general elections…<\/p>\n

A win for George,\u00a0 \u00a0gives Labor a chance to step-back from the political
\nabyss, framed by its (current)\u00a0 9 to 8 majority in the house.
\nArmed with 10 seats, Labor could then\u00a0 up the tempo on retaking St. Georges,
\nwhich the UPP won with a relatively\u00a0 thin majority.<\/p>\n

As things stands, the other\u00a0 UPP seats have been won for at least 2 general
\nelections – Not likely to be in contention until 2033…<\/p>\n

Going into the bi-election, the more than\u00a0 600\u00a0 electors who did not vote in
\nthe general elections, should be of interest to both parties.
\nIn Antigua-Barbuda, The Representation of the People Act,\u00a0 allows the ABEC
\nto remove names of\u00a0 dead electors from the registers. Indications are that
\nthis is\u00a0 done at 3-months intervals.
\nGreat campaigns\u00a0 give\u00a0 \u00a0electoral\u00a0 no-shows\u00a0 a lot of attention in
\nbi-elections…
\nSince there are enough no-show votes, to help win\u00a0 or\u00a0 loose the
\nbi-election, The side that wins will have done best in keeping votes while
\ntaking a convincing chunk of the no-shows of January 18th…
\nRegardless of who wins, The results will determine design\u00a0 \u00a0of\u00a0 2028
\nelections campaign…<\/p>\n

Walk good…Remember!\u00a0 If Simon wins, an\u00a0 UPP star\u00a0 is born. If George gets
\nin, ALP’s 2028 chances are strong.<\/p>\n

(For more analytical pieces, visit:\u00a0arvelgrant.com<\/a>\u00a0or
\narvelgranttoday@facebook.com<\/a>\u00a0<mailto:arvelgranttoday@facebook.com<\/a>>
\n..Authorized for re-print without content\u00a0 modification(s) – All rights
\nreserved<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bi-elections,\u00a0 St. Mary’s South, Antigua-Barbuda, October 24th 2023 If Simon Wins, An UPP Star is Born –\u00a0 If George Gets in, ALP’s 2028 Chances Are Strong. A version of\u00a0 this piece was first published on July 30th 2023 Not authorized for publication in Antigua-Barbuda before close of polls So, Antigua-Barbuda missed an election catastrophe, by […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":159386,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-188909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nCOMMENTARY: If Simon wins, an UPP star is born. 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