{"id":188762,"date":"2023-10-21T16:52:33","date_gmt":"2023-10-21T20:52:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=188762"},"modified":"2023-10-21T16:52:33","modified_gmt":"2023-10-21T20:52:33","slug":"tammy-passed-just-east-of-guadeloupe-and-is-now-located-near-antigua","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/tammy-passed-just-east-of-guadeloupe-and-is-now-located-near-antigua\/","title":{"rendered":"Tammy passed just east of Guadeloupe and is now located near Antigua"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number\u00a0 14<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 AL202023<\/p>\n

500 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>
\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tammy passed just east of Guadeloupe around 18Z and is now located near Antigua.<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n

Radar imagery continues to show a tight and<\/p>\n

well-organized inner core, and the earlier aircraft data indicated<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n

that the hurricane-force winds were confined to that region.<\/p>\n

Despite Tammy having passed just east of Dominica and Guadeloupe<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n

today, surface observations indicate that winds did not get<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n

particularly high at those locations due to Tammy being a very<\/p>\n

compact hurricane.\u00a0 The initial intensity is held at 75 kt based on<\/p>\n

the earlier aircraft data and steady state appearance in radar<\/p>\n

images.\u00a0 Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are<\/p>\n

scheduled to investigate Tammy again this evening.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, 335 degrees, at 9 kt.<\/p>\n

A continued northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during<\/p>\n

the next 12-24 hours, taking the core of Tammy over or just east of<\/p>\n

the Leeward Islands during that time.\u00a0 After the hurricane pulls<\/p>\n

north of the islands on Sunday, a turn to the north seems likely<\/p>\n

when the system moves in the flow between a ridge over the central<\/p>\n

Atlantic and a large trough over the western Atlantic.\u00a0 The spread<\/p>\n

in the guidance continues to be very large in the 4- and 5-day time<\/p>\n

frame.\u00a0 In fact, the difference in the model predicted center<\/p>\n

positions of Tammy at day 5 is more than 1000 miles.\u00a0 The NHC<\/p>\n

intensity forecast is similar is the previous one through day 3, but<\/p>\n

is again slower than the earlier forecast at days 4 and 5, trending<\/p>\n

toward the HCCA guidance.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tammy is expected to remain over very warm 29 to 30 C SSTs during<\/p>\n

the next few days, however, it will also remain in a moderate wind<\/p>\n

shear environment.\u00a0 These conditions will likely result in slow<\/p>\n

strengthening during the next few days.\u00a0 The opportunity for<\/p>\n

strengthening will likely end early next when Tammy moves into a<\/p>\n

region of stronger shear, which should cause a weakening trend.\u00a0 The<\/p>\n

NHC intensity is again nudged upward, trending toward the latest<\/p>\n

consensus models.\u00a0 However, the intensity forecast at long range is<\/p>\n

of low confidence since Tammy’s future strength will likely be<\/p>\n

correlated to the track.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

KEY MESSAGES:<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    of the Leeward Islands through early Sunday.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

      \n
    1. The heaviest rains from Tammy will continue over the Leeward<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Islands through Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and<\/p>\n

      urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher<\/p>\n

      terrain.<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

        \n
      1. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        winds as the center of Tammy moves near or over the Leeward Islands.<\/p>\n

        Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous<\/p>\n

        waves.<\/p>\n

         <\/p>\n

         <\/p>\n

        FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS<\/p>\n

        \"\"<\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number\u00a0 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 AL202023 500 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023   Tammy passed just east of Guadeloupe around 18Z and is now located near Antigua. Radar imagery continues to show a tight and well-organized inner core, and the earlier aircraft data indicated that the hurricane-force winds […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":188763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-188762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nTammy passed just east of Guadeloupe and is now located near Antigua - Antigua News Room<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/tammy-passed-just-east-of-guadeloupe-and-is-now-located-near-antigua\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tammy passed just east of Guadeloupe and is now located near Antigua\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hurricane Tammy Discussion Number\u00a0 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 AL202023 500 PM AST Sat Oct 21 2023   Tammy passed just east of Guadeloupe around 18Z and is now located near Antigua. 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