{"id":182130,"date":"2023-08-10T15:14:03","date_gmt":"2023-08-10T19:14:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=182130"},"modified":"2023-08-10T15:14:03","modified_gmt":"2023-08-10T19:14:03","slug":"hurricane-season-could-turn-hyperactive-amid-unprecedented-conditions-new-outlook-warns-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/hurricane-season-could-turn-hyperactive-amid-unprecedented-conditions-new-outlook-warns-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane season could turn ‘hyperactive’ amid unprecedented conditions, new outlook warns"},"content":{"rendered":"
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USA Today – Top forecasters from<\/span> Colorado State University<\/span><\/a> upgraded their hurricane predictions for 2023 and are now calling for a “borderline hyperactive” season in the Atlantic basin, with as many as nine hurricanes expected to form.<\/span><\/p>

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The upgrade is due primarily to extremely warm ocean water in the Atlantic where storms like to form, forecasters said.<\/span><\/p>\n

The warm Atlantic should counteract the <\/span>hurricane-snuffing impacts of El Ni\u00f1o<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>

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“Large swaths of the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic are at record warm levels, favoring Atlantic hurricane activity,” Colorado State University hurricane researcher <\/span>Phil Klotzbach tweeted Thursday<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>

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“This anomalous warmth is why CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecast has increased, despite likely robust El Ni\u00f1o.”<\/span><\/p>\n

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Hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin \u2013 which consists of the Atlantic Ocean north of the equator, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico \u2013 <\/span>has been quiet since Tropical Storms Bret and Cindy formed in late June<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>

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How many hurricanes are now expected in 2023 Atlantic season?<\/b><\/h2>\n

The CSU team now predicts 18 named storms this season, of which nine will be hurricanes. Of those nine, four are expected to be major hurricanes \u2013 those with a <\/span>Saffir-Simpson category<\/span><\/a> of 3-5 and sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.<\/span><\/p>\n

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A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, with seven spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020.<\/span><\/p>

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The updated forecast is an increase from the 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes Colorado State predicted on June 1.<\/span><\/p>

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The forecast includes four storms that already formed: an unnamed subtropical storm in January and Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy in June.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hot oceans, hyperactive hurricane seasons<\/b><\/h2>\n

Sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic, where hurricanes are often born, are tracking well ahead of previous hyperactive hurricane seasons, Klotzbach said. And typically, warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic fuel more hurricanes.<\/span><\/p>\n

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In the eastern Atlantic, temperatures have been about 1.8 degrees higher than the 1961-1990 average.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition, newly published data from the <\/span>Copernicus Climate Change Service<\/span><\/a> documented \u201cexceptionally warm\u201d ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic with \u201cextreme\u201d marine heat waves near Ireland, the U.K., and in the Baltic Sea.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Looking for analogs<\/b><\/h2>\n

There appear to be few past years like this one, Klotzbach said. “There really aren’t any great analogs to the current situation of record warm Atlantic combined with a likely moderate\/strong El Ni\u00f1o,” he told USA TODAY.<\/span><\/p>\n

“Most of our analog years were El Ni\u00f1o years, when the Atlantic wasn’t nearly as warm as it is now.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Worryingly, one of the analog years to 2023 is the notorious 2005 season, which included Hurricane Katrina. “We selected 2005 as it was one of the few recent ‘hot Atlantic’ years that didn’t have La Ni\u00f1a conditions,” Klotzbach explained.<\/span><\/p>\n

Major hurricane landfalls possible<\/b><\/h2>\n

According to the updated forecast, the probability of a major hurricane hitting the following coastal areas is:<\/span><\/p>\n