{"id":180916,"date":"2023-07-29T11:09:58","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T15:09:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=180916"},"modified":"2023-07-29T11:18:29","modified_gmt":"2023-07-29T15:18:29","slug":"commentary-simon-versus-george-who-shall-prevail-in-st-mary-souths-bi-elections-antigua-barbuda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-simon-versus-george-who-shall-prevail-in-st-mary-souths-bi-elections-antigua-barbuda\/","title":{"rendered":"COMMENTARY: Simon versus George – Who Shall Prevail in St. Mary South’s Bi-elections, Antigua-Barbuda?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By Arvel Grant\u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong><\/span>Post date<\/span><\/span><\/p>

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On January 18th 2023, Kelvin Simon (UPP) defeated Samantha Marshall (ABLP) by 199 votes (862 VS1,061). Ms. Marshall won the seat in the\u00a0 \u00a02 previous general elections by\u00a0 comparatively\u00a0 modest margins.<\/p>\n

It is safe to count this constituency as leaning more UPP than Labor… During the campaign, Labor vowed to challenge a Simon-victory, on the basis that his nomination might not be legal. Mr.\u00a0 Simon rode a massive swing away from Labor, to defeat Ms.\u00a0 Marshall, by a convincing 199 margin. Almost 10% of votes cast…<\/p>

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As Labour\u00a0 pressed\u00a0 its challenge, Mr. Simon\u00a0 exhibited a\u00a0 unique brand of shrewd political instinct. The UPP candidate\u00a0 determined,\u00a0 that he would rather his fate decided\u00a0 by the voters and not by a judge in the High court.<\/p>

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So he\u00a0 resigned his seat (apparently)\u00a0 to\u00a0 trigger\u00a0 a bi-election in the midst of the annual economic low-tide, which occurs outside the tourism season… .<\/p>\n

The sustained and\u00a0 public confusion,\u00a0 which Simon’s action had on Speaker and government, suggested that the young politician, may have\u00a0 \u00a0left the “gates” with a stunning advantage.<\/p>

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An obvious stroke of political genius (if he goes on to win) or a gambler’s nightmare, if he looses…<\/p>\n

Interestingly, Ms. Marshall started a\u00a0 high-profiled campaign to take back the seat, then resigned rather suddenly. So, Mr George (a body-builder) is the new Labor candidate for St. Marys South.<\/p>

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On the face of it, the UPP can be excused for thinking that Mr. Simon holds an unbeatable hand, given his 199 vote margin in defeating Ms.\u00a0 Marshall.<\/p>

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But labourites eyeing a victory for Mr George,\u00a0 will be mindful\u00a0 that “the “power of incumbency” can make all the difference in bi-elections. In such contests, political parties are focused on\u00a0 single constituencies.<\/p>\n

Giving the incumbent unprecedented advantages, because of the governing party’s access to logistics, services,\u00a0 material and money…<\/p>\n

Of course, the unbridled\u00a0 concentration of state resources, on single constituencies, operating under bi-election conditions, could galvanize voter back-lash from opposition and independent electors. So prudent incumbents are\u00a0 \u00a0cautious in the\u00a0 exercise\u00a0 of such options…<\/p>\n

A win for Simon, gives the UPP\u00a0 the luxury\u00a0 of keeping 6 while\u00a0 focusing on winning a mere\u00a0 2 seats (perhaps City East and St Mary’s North) to form the government with Barbuda’s BPM…<\/p>\n

A win for George,\u00a0 \u00a0gives Labor a chance to step-back from the political abyss, framed by its (current)\u00a0 9 to 8 majority in the house. Armed with 10 seats, Labor could then\u00a0 up the tempo on retaking St. Georges, which the UPP won with a relatively\u00a0 thin majority.<\/p>\n

As things stands, the other\u00a0 UPP seats have been won for at least 2 general elections – Not likely to be in contention until 2033…<\/p>\n

Going into the bi-election, the\u00a0 accuracy of the list of electors, should be of concern to both parties. Up to 648 electors did not vote (1,940 voted,\u00a0 \u00a0from\u00a0 a electors list of 2,588. This number is questionable. In Antigua-Barbuda, the names of dead electors remain on the list for up to 10 years.\u00a0 The UN’s statistical department,\u00a0 estimated the country’s crude death rate at 6 per thousand in 2022. .<\/p>\n

Assuming relative constancy, up to 18\u00a0 electors may have died each year or 180\u00a0 since 2013.\u00a0 So,\u00a0 \u00a0180\u00a0 names of dead people, could be on the list in St. Mary’s South. The candidates must\u00a0 “exorcise” them as possible electors. 648 -180=468 is the likely # of electors who did not vote. Great campaigns\u00a0 give\u00a0 such electors a lot of attention in bi-elections…<\/p>\n

So, the result of the upcoming bi-election in the St. Mary’s South constituency, is\u00a0 not a forgone conclusion. Both sides should keep their eyes on those divisions and boxes from which up to 180 dead electors may have transitioned; and\u00a0 get the attention of the468 \u00a0“no-shows” in the Jan 18th general elections…<\/p>\n

Regardless of who wins, The bi-election results, will determine the 2028 elections campaign…<\/p>\n

Walk good…\u00a0 and let us see if Simon and the UPP have what is required to keep-out\u00a0 George\u00a0 and Labor’s power of incumbency in St. Mary’s South.<\/p>\n

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By Arvel Grant\u00a0 \u00a0Post date On January 18th 2023, Kelvin Simon (UPP) defeated Samantha Marshall (ABLP) by 199 votes (862 VS1,061). Ms. Marshall won the seat in the\u00a0 \u00a02 previous general elections by\u00a0 comparatively\u00a0 modest margins. It is safe to count this constituency as leaning more UPP than Labor… During the campaign, Labor vowed to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":180803,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-180916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nCOMMENTARY: Simon versus George - Who Shall Prevail in St. Mary South's Bi-elections, Antigua-Barbuda? - Antigua News Room<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/commentary-simon-versus-george-who-shall-prevail-in-st-mary-souths-bi-elections-antigua-barbuda\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"COMMENTARY: Simon versus George - Who Shall Prevail in St. Mary South's Bi-elections, Antigua-Barbuda?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Arvel Grant\u00a0 \u00a0Post date On January 18th 2023, Kelvin Simon (UPP) defeated Samantha Marshall (ABLP) by 199 votes (862 VS1,061). Ms. Marshall won the seat in the\u00a0 \u00a02 previous general elections by\u00a0 comparatively\u00a0 modest margins. 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