{"id":175772,"date":"2023-06-09T08:51:52","date_gmt":"2023-06-09T12:51:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=175772"},"modified":"2023-06-09T08:51:52","modified_gmt":"2023-06-09T12:51:52","slug":"june-2023-enso-update-el-nino-is-here","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/june-2023-enso-update-el-nino-is-here\/","title":{"rendered":"June 2023 ENSO update: El Ni\u00f1o is here"},"content":{"rendered":"
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SOURCE: NOAA –<\/strong> El Ni\u00f1o conditions have developed, as the atmospheric response to the warmer-than-average tropical Pacific sea surface kicked in over the past month.<\/p>

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We expect El Ni\u00f1o to continue into the winter<\/a>, and the odds of it becoming a strong event at its peak are pretty good, at 56%. Chances of at least a moderate event are about 84%.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o\u2014the warm phase of the\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o-La Ni\u00f1a climate pattern<\/a>\u2014changes global atmospheric circulation in known ways, giving us an idea of potential upcoming weather and climate patterns.<\/p>

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A stronger El Ni\u00f1o means global temperature, rain, and other patterns are more likely to reflect the expected El Ni\u00f1o impacts. I\u2019ll get into some of the details of those impacts later in this post.<\/p>

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The circus is in town<\/h2>\n

El Ni\u00f1o conditions are present when we have met all the criteria of our decision tree.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"Schematic<\/a>
Summary of NOAA decision process in determining El Ni\u00f1o conditions. NOAA Climate.gov drawing by Glen Becker and Fiona Martin.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

The\u00a0monthly Ni\u00f1o-3.4 index<\/a>, which tracks the temperature of the surface of the tropical Pacific ocean, was 0.5 \u00b0Celsius (0.9 \u02daFahrenheit)\u00a0 above the long-term average (long-term = 1991\u00ad\u20132020), according to the OISSTv2.1 monthly dataset. 0.5 \u00b0C is the threshold for El Ni\u00f1o, so\u2026 check!<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n

The warm-up following our recent La Ni\u00f1a has been pretty remarkable. We even clocked in a 0.8\u00b0C value over the past week in the same dataset, so temperature anomalies are continuing to increase.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"Animation<\/a>
Animation of maps of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean compared to the long-term average over five-day periods from the end of January to early June 2023. The waters in the key monitoring region, which scientists call “the Ni\u00f1o-3.4 region,” start out cooler than average (blue) and progressively become warmer than average (red) as La Ni\u00f1a ends and El Ni\u00f1o arrives. A higher-resolution version of this animation\u00a0is available as a movie.\u00a0NOAA Climate.gov, based on Coral Reef Watch maps available from\u00a0NOAA View.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

We anticipate that it will remain above this El Ni\u00f1o threshold for the next several months, based on\u00a0climate model predictions<\/a>\u00a0and current conditions in the tropical Pacific (more on this in a minute)\u2026 check! There are the first two of our three\u00a0rings\u00a0criteria.<\/p>

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The flying trapeze<\/h2>\n

The third criteria, \u201cindications of a weaker Walker circulation,\u201d refers to the average atmospheric pattern over the equatorial Pacific.<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n

The average\u00a0Walker circulation<\/a>\u00a0is characterized by rising air and storms (convection) over the very warm waters of the far western Pacific, west-to-east winds high up in the atmosphere, descending motion over the relatively cooler waters of the eastern Pacific, and the trade winds\u2014east-to-west surface winds.<\/p>\n

These strong surface winds help to keep the warm water piled up in the western Pacific.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"Walker<\/a>
Generalized Walker Circulation (December-February) during ENSO-neutral conditions. \u00a0Convection associated with rising branches of the Walker Circulation is found over the Maritime continent, northern South America, and eastern Africa. NOAA Climate.gov drawing by Fiona Martin.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s warmer-than-average surface water alters this circulation by bringing more rainfall and convection to the central and eastern Pacific. The trade winds weaken, which allows the surface to warm further, allows warmer water to slosh back eastward, and reinforces the El Ni\u00f1o sea surface temperature pattern. This is the\u00a0critical feedback mechanism indicative of El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"Walker<\/a>
Generalized Walker Circulation (December-February) anomaly during El Ni\u00f1o events, overlaid on map of average sea surface temperature anomalies. Anomalous ocean warming in the central and eastern Pacific (orange) help to shift a rising branch of the Walker Circulation to east of 180\u00b0, while sinking branches shift to over the Maritime continent and northern South America. NOAA Climate.gov drawing by Fiona Martin.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Over the past month, evidence of the weakened Walker circulation appeared in the form of weaker trade winds over the western Pacific and more clouds and rain over the equatorial Pacific. Convection over Indonesia was reduced, too, another characteristic of the weaker Walker circulation.<\/p>\n

We quantify the atmospheric component of El Ni\u00f1o using the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI<\/a>) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI<\/a>), both of which compare the surface atmospheric pressure in the western Pacific to that in the eastern Pacific (more details on these indexes\u00a0here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Both measured -1.0 standard deviations in May (meaning the indexes were lower than about two-thirds of all measurements), providing significant indication of the weaker Walker circulation and further evidence that the ocean-atmosphere system has coupled and El Ni\u00f1o conditions have developed.<\/p>\n

Ringmaster<\/h2>\n

We spend so much time and energy studying and forecasting El Ni\u00f1o (and its counterpart, La Ni\u00f1a) because those changes to the atmospheric circulation have\u00a0global impacts<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In a one-paragraph nutshell: warm air that rises near the equator moves toward the poles high up in the atmosphere, descending again near 30 \u00b0N and 30 \u00b0S, in an overturning pattern called the Hadley circulation.<\/p>\n

The Hadley circulation is connected with the\u00a0jet streams<\/a>\u00a0over the middle to high latitudes, which steer storms around the world and separate cold and warm air masses.<\/p>\n

As El Ni\u00f1o heats the atmosphere above the central and eastern tropical Pacific, it leads to a stronger Hadley circulation and changes to the jet streams. For example, in an El Ni\u00f1o winter, an extended North Pacific jet stream tends to bring more storms across the southern tier of the U.S. and warmer air to the northern half of North America.<\/p>\n

\n
\"El<\/a><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Since El Ni\u00f1o can usually be predicted months in advance, we can anticipate these changes and their impacts. When El Ni\u00f1o is stronger, meaning the sea surface temperature is much warmer than average, it has a stronger hand in changing global circulation, making the impact patterns more likely.<\/p>\n

Of course, nature is full of surprises, and while El Ni\u00f1o makes certain patterns more likely, we never get exactly what we expect! For more on this high-wire act, I\u2019ll let the titles of these two posts speak for themselves: \u201cNot what I ordered: How El Ni\u00f1o is like a bad bartender<\/a>,\u201d and \u201cNo, you can\u2019t blame it all on El Ni\u00f1o\u2026 but it\u2019s still a seasonal forecaster\u2019s best friend<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fire breather<\/h2>\n

Along with the atmospheric signs, the subsurface ocean is also providing confidence that El Ni\u00f1o will continue.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\"graph<\/a>
Graph showing the average temperature over the past year of the top 300 m (~1000 ft) of the Pacific Ocean, 180-100\u00b0W departure from the long-term (1991\u20132020) average. Graph by climate.gov from CPC data.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

There is currently quite a lot of warmer-than-average water under the surface of the Pacific, as one downwelling\u00a0Kelvin wave<\/a>\u00a0(an area of warm water that sloshes from the west to the east under the surface) has passed through and another is emerging.<\/p>\n

In fact, the May 2023 average subsurface temperature was the fourth-warmest May value in our\u00a0record (1979\u20132023<\/a>).<\/p>\n

This definitely isn\u2019t a 100% certain indicator that a strong El Ni\u00f1o will develop, but it is suggestive. The top two May values were 1997 and 2015, both of which preceded strong El Ni\u00f1o events, but the third, 1980, did not.<\/p>\n

Bring in the clowns<\/h2>\n

As I mentioned above, nature always has surprises in store, and predicting anything several months in advance is difficult. While El Ni\u00f1o conditions have developed, there\u2019s still a small chance (4-7%) that things will fizzle out.<\/p>\n

Clearly, we think this is unlikely, but it\u2019s not impossible. The incredible warmth of the global oceans could throw us a curveball, since we\u2019ve not seen this before. Another potential, but also less likely, outcome is a weak El Ni\u00f1o, with about a 12% chance. Check the probabilities for all El Ni\u00f1o outcomes\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0and read more about forecasting El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In coming months, I\u2019ll keep you updated on the development of this El Ni\u00f1o. We\u2019ll also have deeper dives into some El Ni\u00f1o impacts, including a post on El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s interaction with global temperature coming up in a couple of weeks. As discussed last month<\/a>, global temperatures are running way above average, and that has only\u00a0continued recently<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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SOURCE: NOAA – El Ni\u00f1o conditions have developed, as the atmospheric response to the warmer-than-average tropical Pacific sea surface kicked in over the past month. We expect El Ni\u00f1o to continue into the winter, and the odds of it becoming a strong event at its peak are pretty good, at 56%. Chances of at least […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":15637,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-175772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-regional"],"yoast_head":"\nJune 2023 ENSO update: El Ni\u00f1o is here - Antigua News Room<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/june-2023-enso-update-el-nino-is-here\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"June 2023 ENSO update: El Ni\u00f1o is here\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"SOURCE: NOAA – El Ni\u00f1o conditions have developed, as the atmospheric response to the warmer-than-average tropical Pacific sea surface kicked in over the past month. We expect El Ni\u00f1o to continue into the winter, and the odds of it becoming a strong event at its peak are pretty good, at 56%. 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We expect El Ni\u00f1o to continue into the winter, and the odds of it becoming a strong event at its peak are pretty good, at 56%. 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