{"id":144430,"date":"2022-01-03T19:00:01","date_gmt":"2022-01-03T23:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=144430"},"modified":"2022-01-03T19:00:01","modified_gmt":"2022-01-03T23:00:01","slug":"us-researcher-predicts-2022-to-be-a-very-difficult-year-for-the-caribbean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/us-researcher-predicts-2022-to-be-a-very-difficult-year-for-the-caribbean\/","title":{"rendered":"US researcher predicts 2022 to be a \u2018very difficult year\u2019 for the Caribbean"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A United States researcher is predicting that 2022 will likely be a \u201cmercurial but ultimately very difficult year\u201d for Latin America and the Caribbean as well as the Biden administration\u2019s engagement in the region.<\/p>

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Writing for Global Americans, a New York-based think tank that specialises in providing analysis and opinions about the Americas, including the Caribbean, Dr Evan Ellis said this year will begin with hope that the region is \u201cslowly gaining the upper hand in its battle with COVID-19\u201d.<\/p>\n

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Ellis, a non-resident senior associate in the Americas Programme for the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said that 2022 will also start with hope that \u201cthe continuing string of victories by left-of-centre parties, the consolidation of authoritarian populism and the advance of the People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC) will not have the negative consequences that some fear.<\/p>

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\u201cBy the end of the year, that optimism will likely be strained by a combination of problematic behaviour by the radical left and populist authoritarian regimes, further significant electoral advances of the populist left, and increasing challenges from organised crime, political instability, fiscal and economic crises, and refugee flows,\u201d said Ellis, who previously served on the US Secretary of State\u2019s policy planning staff with responsibility for Latin America and the Caribbean.<\/p>

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\u201cThe year will likely also feature continued diplomatic, economic, political and security penetration of the region by the PRC, as well as a notably weakened US voice in both multilateral affairs and bilateral political and security engagement to address such challenges,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

Ellis said that, in Venezuela, expanded oil production, helped in part by the China National Oil Development Corporation\u2019s re-engagement, \u201cwill complement Russian arms, Iranian support, and an emboldened Nicol\u00e1s Maduro to increase Venezuela\u2019s risk to its neighbours\u201d.<\/p>

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\u201cViolence involving terrorist groups in Venezuela, such as the FARC and ELN, will raise the prospect of military action spilling over into the territory of Venezuela\u2019s neighbours,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n

On the China-Taiwan issue, he is predicting that \u201c2022 will likely see the Caribbean become a new area of focus, including the possibility of a flip by the current government of St Lucia, which currently recognises Taiwan but previously recognised the PRC, or by the next government in Haiti\u201d.<\/p>

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The two Caribbean Community (Caricom) countries are among a handful of Caribbean states with diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The others include St Kitts-Nevis, and St Vincent and the Grenadines.\u00a0 The other Caribbean countries have diplomatic relations with Beijing.<\/p>

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As the region moves beyond the economic paralysis of COVID-19, Ellis said a range of temporarily-stalled Chinese projects may begin, adding that the role of Chinese companies in 5G, biotech, ridesharing and other e-commerce will be \u201ccontributing to a sense that PRC-based companies are advancing everywhere\u201d.<\/p>\n

Across Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, he cautioned that the deterioration of the security situation and the continuing influence of organised crime will \u201chighlight the cost of the lost US ability to engage, let alone substantially influence, its partners in the region, even tiny El Salvador, on issues of organised crime, immigration, or China, or secure cooperation on such issues in once-reliable multilateral institutions such as the OAS (Washington-based Organization of American States).<\/p>\n

\u201cThat visibly weakened US posture will contribute strongly to the recapture of the House of Representatives by the Republican Party in the November 2022 US midterm elections,\u201d Ellis said.<\/p>\n

The researcher said the result will likely be more conflict, stagnation and attention to the increasing challenges for the United States in the Western Hemisphere, albeit not likely significant solutions under a split Congress.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn short, in 2022, the United States will find that after a few initial signs of hope, the hemisphere to which it is intimately bound by ties of geography, commerce and family is more dangerous, less democratic, less stable, less willing to cooperate, and more engaged than ever with its extra-regional rivals.<\/p>\n

\u201cPredictions are imperfect, however, it is possible that some of the anticipated glimmers of hope at the beginning of the year will fail to materialise, and the region will plunge more rapidly into crisis,\u201d Ellis wrote.<\/p>\n

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A United States researcher is predicting that 2022 will likely be a \u201cmercurial but ultimately very difficult year\u201d for Latin America and the Caribbean as well as the Biden administration\u2019s engagement in the region. 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