{"id":115299,"date":"2020-08-17T07:14:00","date_gmt":"2020-08-17T11:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/?p=115299"},"modified":"2020-08-17T07:14:00","modified_gmt":"2020-08-17T11:14:00","slug":"busy-week-ahead-for-the-caribbean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antiguanewsroom.com\/busy-week-ahead-for-the-caribbean\/","title":{"rendered":"Busy Week Ahead for the Caribbean"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dale C. S. Destin | 268Weather<\/p>

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Looks like the Caribbean is set for another busy week. There is the\u00a0potential for<\/strong>\u00a0two tropical cyclones<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 tropical depressions, tropical storms or hurricanes, impacting the area.<\/p>\n

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Tropical Disturbances AL97 (near the Caribbean) and AL96 (near Africa)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It is the start of a new week but the\u00a0continuation of a record-breaking hurricane season<\/strong>, which could add two more storms to its tally, in days. There are two new disturbances between Africa and the Caribbean,\u00a0taking aim at the islands<\/strong>.<\/p>

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Satellite picture animation showing the locations of the distrubances<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It is uncertain as to whether these disturbances will become tropical cyclones, where they will go and what hazards, they will bring to the area. However, at this time of the year,\u00a0most disturbances do develop into tropical cyclones<\/strong>, as conditions are generally conducive, like they are currently, bar the dry and dusty Saharan air.<\/p>

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Today, we saw the\u00a0end of Tropical Storm Josephine<\/strong>, which threatened the area but eventually passed a safe distance north of all the islands.<\/p>\n

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Tropical Storm Josephine passing by on Saturday afternoon, 15 August, 2020<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

With Josephine gone,\u00a0all attention is now on Disturbances AL96 and AL97<\/strong>. They both have a 50 percent chance of formation. And they both have tracks that take them through the Caribbean.<\/p>

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The second of the two systems, AL96, appears to be more of a future threat to the Caribbean,\u00a0particularly the Leeward Islands<\/strong>. AL97 is perhaps moving too rapidly for much development to take place before reaching the Eastern Caribbean tomorrow; however, it is forecast to slow down in the Caribbean Sea where it will encounter\u00a0favourable conditions for formation Wednesday<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

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Most available models have AL97 becoming a tropical storm in 48 hours \u2013 Tuesday night\/Wednesday<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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Most available models have AL97 going through the southern Caribbean, at most, as a Tropical Depression<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The\u00a0gold standard of models<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 the ECMWF IFS or\u00a0European model<\/strong>\u00a0is very sweet on AL96. It gives it a relatively high chance of becoming a tropical storm and track towards our \u201cneck of the woods<\/strong>\u201d \u2013 the Leeward Islands this upcoming weekend. This week could end similarly to the one just gone \u2013 with us under a Tropical Cyclone Alert or worse.<\/p>

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